Yep, it's that time of year again, when Vegas sports books release their NFL win total over/unders. Actually, "that time of year again" was apparently way back in May, as that's when the excellent vegaswatch blog released it. But since you can't learn anything about teams in May, why not wait until now? Exactly. The lines have changed slightly since May, so we'll go with a more recent version. My picks are in cap beside Vegas' win total over/under number. As always play along at home- and not for money, because that would be gambling, and gambling- in case you didn't know- is illegal...
Arizona Cardinals 8.5 wins, UNDER
Atlanta Falcons 8.5 OVER
Baltimore Ravens 8.5 UNDER
Buffalo Bills 7.5 UNDER
Carolina Panthers 8.5 UNDER
Chicago Bears 8.5 OVER
Cincinnati Bengals 6.5 OVER
Cleveland Browns 7 UNDER
Dallas Cowboys 9 OVER
Denver Broncos 7.5 UNDER
Detroit Lions 5 UNDER
Green Bay Packers 9 OVER
Houston Texans 8 UNDER
Indianapolis Colts 10 UNDER
Jacksonville Jaguars 8 OVER
Kansas City Chiefs 6 UNDER
Miami Dolphins 7 OVER
Minnesota Vikings 9 OVER
New England Patriots 11.5 UNDER
New Orleans Saints 8.5 OVER
New York Giants 10 OVER
New York Jets 7 UNDER
Oakland Raiders 5.5 UNDER
Philadelphia Eagles 9.5 UNDER
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5 OVER
San Diego Chargers 9.5 OVER
San Francisco 49ers 7 UNDER
Seattle Seahawks 7.5 OVER
St Louis Rams 5.5 UNDER
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5 OVER
Tennessee Titans 9 OVER
Washington Redskins 8 UNDER
Ok now take your 10 best picks, and assign confidence points: the one you're MOST confident gets a 10, second most confident 9, etc all the way down to the one of your top 10 you're least confident about, which gets a one. Here's mine...
10. Seattle Seahawks 7.5 OVER
9. Washington Redskins 8 UNDER
8. San Diego Super Chargers 9.5 OVER
7. Cleveland Browns 7 UNDER
6. Arizona Cardinals 8.5 UNDER
5. Minnesota Vikings 9 OVER
4. Denver Broncos 7.5 UNDER
3. New York J-E-T-S JETS! JETS! JETS! 7 UNDER
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 8 OVER
1. Atlanta Falcons 8.5 OVER
Friday, August 21, 2009
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
NFC Norris is a Three Team Race
Is it football season yet? Can we pretend it is? Good lord July is a looooooooonnnnnnggggggg month, especially when the weather is less than stellar as it has been. So much for the "much warmer than average" summer we were supposed to get that would offset our "colder than average longer than hell" winter we just had. Thanks again weatherpeeps for that awesomely wrong prognostication. What other job can you be wrong more than 50% of the time (actually WAY more than 50%) and still keep it? Or just generally be terrible at your job and still have job security? I give you the following:
- politician
- VP of basketball operations for the Minnesota Timberwolves
- corporate higher-ups for AIG and Goldman Sachs (both made record profits last month, by the way. Your tax dollars hard at work!!)
- GM of the Clippers
- most auto mechanics (except my future father-in-law. He's very good and very honest)
- owner of a professional sports team
- Isiah Thomas doing anything related to basketball since he retired as a player
There's probably more, but that's what I come up with off the top of my head. ANYWAY, we're getting way off track here. I wanted to talk to you today about the NFC Norris race for 2009. As a Vikings fan, I would LOVE to agree with the national folks who tell you this is the Vikings division to lose now that Brett Favre will eventually be the starting QB. I'd love to tell you that, but I can't. It's not because I don't think Favre will help make the Vikes better- I do. I think they COULD be as good as a 12 win team this year if everything goes well.
But I think the Bears and Pack will also be very, very good. I probably don't have to convince you much about Da Bears, who if you haven't heard for the 2,182nd time have a new QB in Jay Cutler, who according to Bears fans is like a cross between Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas, and Jesus- IF Jesus had a laser rocket arm and a pretty-boy haircut. Sure, Cutler will be an upgrade over Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman, but that's like saying a sprained ankle is better than a broken ankle- isn't just about ANYTHING better than a broken ankle? Cutler has more ability and a better resume than the other two, but he has to run an offense he's never run, and there's still this minor little problem of him having no one to throw to but RB Matt Forte and TE Greg Olsen.
Seriously, the Bears had probably the worst group of wide receivers in the league last year (wait, now that I think about it...yep, they DEFINITELY had the worst group of wide receivers last year, maybe the worst of the decade), and do you know what they did to upgrade the position in the offseason? Drafted Juaquin "Don't call me Julio or Enrique- Especially Enrique" Iglesias in the 3rd round and...got Earl Bennett back from injury!! YES! Problem solved! Crisis averted! Wait...who's Earl Bennett again?
Yeah so the Bears took their position of greatest weakness (unless we're counting "general manager" as a position) and decided to do nothing about it, which is a pretty good strategy - unless it's your position of greatest weakness. But hey, at least GM Jerry Angelo didn't also decide to kick the offense while it was down and not allow Devin Hester to return kicks and punts. Hester's only arguably the best in the history of the league at returns, so it would make zero sense to take away what Hester gave you there- which at worst was good field position because most teams were scared $&%^less to punt to him so they'd kick it 30 yards out of bounds or at best a touchdown when they did kick to him- and try to start him at wideout, where he was never even good enough to play wideout for his COLLEGE team let alone in the NFL. Good thing...what's that? Angelo did exaclty that? Probably not a shock he also thinks the receiving corps are just peachy, thanks.
Still in spite of Angelo, the Bears still went 9-7 last year, missing the playoffs by a game. I guess if I'm going to kill Angelo for some his bad moves, I have to praise him for taking the unheralded Forte in the second round, who had a monster rookie season (only averaged 3.9 ypc, but ran for 1,218 yards and eight TD's and caught 63 passes- which led the team- for another 477 yards and four more scores). Besides the big addition of Cutler, Angelo also inked former perenial all-pro OT Orlando Pace, who should be an upgrade over what they had there last year.
Defensively the Bears are always tough, and I don't see the departure of FS Mike Brown to Kansas City being much of a loss. Yes, he's very talented, and yes he played almost a full season last year- but that was his first season he was even remotely healthy since 2003, and for a guy as brittle as he's been (from 2004-2008 he played in a TOTAL of just 21 games- an average of just five a year), I wouldn't trust him to stay healthy again for long.
For the Green Bay Packers, the Cheeseheads, the Drunken Sconies...well it kills me to say this. It really, really does, but they were a much better team last season than their 6-10 record indicated, and I think they're heading for a HUGE bounce-back year. In 2008 a whopping seven of their 10 losses were by four points or less, and they outscored their opponents on the season 419-380. The 419 points were fifth highest in the league in 2008 behind only New Orleans (463), San Diego (439), Arizona (427), and the New York Football Giants (427). A high-scoring offense does not guarantee you a trip to the playoffs, of course, but it sure helps. The only real question with the offense is whether a patchwork offensive line can keep Rodgers in one piece and open some holes for Ryan Grant, who played really well down the stretch after an awful start. Ryan Grant played well down the stretch and the Cheeseheads might have the best receiving corps in football.
Defense is where the Pack struggled last year, and just to make sure they could spread the blame evenly they couldn't stop the run for the first half of the year, and then the pass the second half. The run game suffered from the start because monstrous (wait what's a bigger word than monstrous? Gi-nor-monstrous? Let's go with that) DT Grady Jackson, whose weight fluctuated somewhere between 400 pounds and the weight of all the dairy cows in Wisconsin (which he could probably eat in one sitting), was let go as a free agent, and just as gi-nor-monstrously disappointing DT Justin Harrell couldn't even begin to fill the void. Then all-pro middle linebacker Nick Barnett was lost for the season with a knee injury in the MInnesota game in week 10, followed by Atari Bigby with a shoulder injury in week 13 (who had already missed five games earlier in the year) and that was it for the pass defense.
Green Bay went hard after defensive help with their two first round picks taking DT BJ Raji at 9th overall (let's hope he works out better than Harrell has, Cheeseheads), and OLB Clay Matthews (did you know Matthews was a walk-on at USC? Did you know his dad played pro football? Did you? DID YOU?!? It's a great story- especially when we've already heard it 9,476 times before opening day even comes. He's an over-achiever. We get it, thanks. Loud and clear), and both could and should start in the opener at Lambeau agains the Bears. Add free agent FS Anthony Smith, and the Pack defense should have more depth and be much improved for 2009.
So as you can see, all three teams should be very good, and I don't see much separating them other than unpredictable injuries. Even the schedule doesn't really give an advantage, as 14 of their 16 games are against common opponents: six divisional games, and eight against the NFC West and AFC North. Their two remaining games:
Chicago: @ Atlanta, Philadelphia
Green Bay: @ Tampa, Dallas
Minnesota: @ Carolina, NY Giants
Chicago definitely gets the toughest draw, as I'm picking both Atlanta and Philly to win their divisions in 2009, and at the least both should be wild card contenders. Green Bay then gets the nod ahead of Minnesota as Tampa shouldn't be very good and the Cowboys are, well, they're the Cowboys- could be good but most likely will be overrated and very, very overhyped. I see Carolina falling off a little bit but will still be tough, as will the Giants.
Do I like the Vikes chances for 2009 with Favre? Nope, I LOVE their chances- this could be the best team the Purple's had since the 1998 team (NFL Network had an "America's Game" marathon on during the July 4th weekend, including their "Missing Rings" series about the five best teams who didn't win the Super Bowl. Of course the Vikes were on there twice- for the 1969 squad and the fabled and infamous 1998 team. Watching the hour long story on the 1998 team, I am reminded how much I LOVED that team- even Denny Green. But man it hurts when it gets to the end and we're once again reminded that a) Gary Anderson missed a chip shot and b) Denny Green decided to take a knee heading into halftime, leaving the most potent offense in the history of the sport- at least until the 2007 Patriots came along- on the sidelines. I miss Randy Moss, but I do not miss Denny Green. Thanks Denny. Keep taking that high road), but if they do win the division it's going to be much tougher than most folks seem to think.
- politician
- VP of basketball operations for the Minnesota Timberwolves
- corporate higher-ups for AIG and Goldman Sachs (both made record profits last month, by the way. Your tax dollars hard at work!!)
- GM of the Clippers
- most auto mechanics (except my future father-in-law. He's very good and very honest)
- owner of a professional sports team
- Isiah Thomas doing anything related to basketball since he retired as a player
There's probably more, but that's what I come up with off the top of my head. ANYWAY, we're getting way off track here. I wanted to talk to you today about the NFC Norris race for 2009. As a Vikings fan, I would LOVE to agree with the national folks who tell you this is the Vikings division to lose now that Brett Favre will eventually be the starting QB. I'd love to tell you that, but I can't. It's not because I don't think Favre will help make the Vikes better- I do. I think they COULD be as good as a 12 win team this year if everything goes well.
But I think the Bears and Pack will also be very, very good. I probably don't have to convince you much about Da Bears, who if you haven't heard for the 2,182nd time have a new QB in Jay Cutler, who according to Bears fans is like a cross between Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas, and Jesus- IF Jesus had a laser rocket arm and a pretty-boy haircut. Sure, Cutler will be an upgrade over Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman, but that's like saying a sprained ankle is better than a broken ankle- isn't just about ANYTHING better than a broken ankle? Cutler has more ability and a better resume than the other two, but he has to run an offense he's never run, and there's still this minor little problem of him having no one to throw to but RB Matt Forte and TE Greg Olsen.
Seriously, the Bears had probably the worst group of wide receivers in the league last year (wait, now that I think about it...yep, they DEFINITELY had the worst group of wide receivers last year, maybe the worst of the decade), and do you know what they did to upgrade the position in the offseason? Drafted Juaquin "Don't call me Julio or Enrique- Especially Enrique" Iglesias in the 3rd round and...got Earl Bennett back from injury!! YES! Problem solved! Crisis averted! Wait...who's Earl Bennett again?
Yeah so the Bears took their position of greatest weakness (unless we're counting "general manager" as a position) and decided to do nothing about it, which is a pretty good strategy - unless it's your position of greatest weakness. But hey, at least GM Jerry Angelo didn't also decide to kick the offense while it was down and not allow Devin Hester to return kicks and punts. Hester's only arguably the best in the history of the league at returns, so it would make zero sense to take away what Hester gave you there- which at worst was good field position because most teams were scared $&%^less to punt to him so they'd kick it 30 yards out of bounds or at best a touchdown when they did kick to him- and try to start him at wideout, where he was never even good enough to play wideout for his COLLEGE team let alone in the NFL. Good thing...what's that? Angelo did exaclty that? Probably not a shock he also thinks the receiving corps are just peachy, thanks.
Still in spite of Angelo, the Bears still went 9-7 last year, missing the playoffs by a game. I guess if I'm going to kill Angelo for some his bad moves, I have to praise him for taking the unheralded Forte in the second round, who had a monster rookie season (only averaged 3.9 ypc, but ran for 1,218 yards and eight TD's and caught 63 passes- which led the team- for another 477 yards and four more scores). Besides the big addition of Cutler, Angelo also inked former perenial all-pro OT Orlando Pace, who should be an upgrade over what they had there last year.
Defensively the Bears are always tough, and I don't see the departure of FS Mike Brown to Kansas City being much of a loss. Yes, he's very talented, and yes he played almost a full season last year- but that was his first season he was even remotely healthy since 2003, and for a guy as brittle as he's been (from 2004-2008 he played in a TOTAL of just 21 games- an average of just five a year), I wouldn't trust him to stay healthy again for long.
For the Green Bay Packers, the Cheeseheads, the Drunken Sconies...well it kills me to say this. It really, really does, but they were a much better team last season than their 6-10 record indicated, and I think they're heading for a HUGE bounce-back year. In 2008 a whopping seven of their 10 losses were by four points or less, and they outscored their opponents on the season 419-380. The 419 points were fifth highest in the league in 2008 behind only New Orleans (463), San Diego (439), Arizona (427), and the New York Football Giants (427). A high-scoring offense does not guarantee you a trip to the playoffs, of course, but it sure helps. The only real question with the offense is whether a patchwork offensive line can keep Rodgers in one piece and open some holes for Ryan Grant, who played really well down the stretch after an awful start. Ryan Grant played well down the stretch and the Cheeseheads might have the best receiving corps in football.
Defense is where the Pack struggled last year, and just to make sure they could spread the blame evenly they couldn't stop the run for the first half of the year, and then the pass the second half. The run game suffered from the start because monstrous (wait what's a bigger word than monstrous? Gi-nor-monstrous? Let's go with that) DT Grady Jackson, whose weight fluctuated somewhere between 400 pounds and the weight of all the dairy cows in Wisconsin (which he could probably eat in one sitting), was let go as a free agent, and just as gi-nor-monstrously disappointing DT Justin Harrell couldn't even begin to fill the void. Then all-pro middle linebacker Nick Barnett was lost for the season with a knee injury in the MInnesota game in week 10, followed by Atari Bigby with a shoulder injury in week 13 (who had already missed five games earlier in the year) and that was it for the pass defense.
Green Bay went hard after defensive help with their two first round picks taking DT BJ Raji at 9th overall (let's hope he works out better than Harrell has, Cheeseheads), and OLB Clay Matthews (did you know Matthews was a walk-on at USC? Did you know his dad played pro football? Did you? DID YOU?!? It's a great story- especially when we've already heard it 9,476 times before opening day even comes. He's an over-achiever. We get it, thanks. Loud and clear), and both could and should start in the opener at Lambeau agains the Bears. Add free agent FS Anthony Smith, and the Pack defense should have more depth and be much improved for 2009.
So as you can see, all three teams should be very good, and I don't see much separating them other than unpredictable injuries. Even the schedule doesn't really give an advantage, as 14 of their 16 games are against common opponents: six divisional games, and eight against the NFC West and AFC North. Their two remaining games:
Chicago: @ Atlanta, Philadelphia
Green Bay: @ Tampa, Dallas
Minnesota: @ Carolina, NY Giants
Chicago definitely gets the toughest draw, as I'm picking both Atlanta and Philly to win their divisions in 2009, and at the least both should be wild card contenders. Green Bay then gets the nod ahead of Minnesota as Tampa shouldn't be very good and the Cowboys are, well, they're the Cowboys- could be good but most likely will be overrated and very, very overhyped. I see Carolina falling off a little bit but will still be tough, as will the Giants.
Do I like the Vikes chances for 2009 with Favre? Nope, I LOVE their chances- this could be the best team the Purple's had since the 1998 team (NFL Network had an "America's Game" marathon on during the July 4th weekend, including their "Missing Rings" series about the five best teams who didn't win the Super Bowl. Of course the Vikes were on there twice- for the 1969 squad and the fabled and infamous 1998 team. Watching the hour long story on the 1998 team, I am reminded how much I LOVED that team- even Denny Green. But man it hurts when it gets to the end and we're once again reminded that a) Gary Anderson missed a chip shot and b) Denny Green decided to take a knee heading into halftime, leaving the most potent offense in the history of the sport- at least until the 2007 Patriots came along- on the sidelines. I miss Randy Moss, but I do not miss Denny Green. Thanks Denny. Keep taking that high road), but if they do win the division it's going to be much tougher than most folks seem to think.
Monday, July 13, 2009
The Monday Musings
We've reached baseball's all-star weekend which means two things: less than 3 weeks until NFL training camps open!!! And about a month until the kiddies start showing up for college football!!! Good times are just around the bend. Until then a few musings on the world o' sports...
...I didn't watch UFC 100 and I doubt I'd watch UFC 101 or 102 or 103...well, you get the idea. I'm not an MMA fan but I did hear and did read about Brock Lesnar's antics and comments and if I'm a non-MMA fan and I'm clicking on stories to find out what happened, that can't be a bad thing, right? I agree with Dana White that this is NOT the WWE and Lesnar needs to tone it down, but at the same time White's sport is gaining more attention, and potentially a GREAT villian. And all sports are better with a great villian.
...last week Sid Hartman was banging the drum for the Twins to deal for Pirates 2B Freddy Sanchez...and for once I agree with him. Sanchez is maybe league-average defensively, and would be a drop from Brendan Harris or Matt Tolbert or Nicky Punto or whomever they're running out there now. But offensively he'd be a huge upgrade (I personally prefer Harris at short with Little Nicky Punto coming off the bench. Yes Punto has been very good defensively but he's a zero, or less than that, at the plate) as he's currently posting a .316/.356/.478 (for an OPS of .834- which would not only be 5th best on the Twins behind Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Cuddy, but is also 4th best among all MLB second basemen), and would give them a solid #2 hitter for the first time in, well, who was the last good 2 hitter the Twinkies had? Exactly. Of course, this would cost the Twins a couple of prospects AND would mean they'd have to take on more money, so the chances of it happening are probably slim and none. Oh well. If only they had a brand new tax-payer paid cash cow of a stadium coming next year that will give the Twins budget a HUGE financial boost.
...speaking of Minnesota teams out of touch with reality, how about the Timberwolves and GM David Kahn playing hardball with Ricky Rubio and trying to convince us they don't need him? Really David? Have you looked at your team's finances from last season? Because thanks to this article on cbssports.com, I have- and the numbers do NOT look good for you. CBS and NBA writer Ken Berger got ahold of the NBA's 2008 league-wide revenue report, and the results aren't pretty, especially for the Wolves. These numbers are not the inflated ticket sales number teams try to throw at you- these are how many people actually paid AND showed up to watch games. The Wolves were second worst in ticket revenue (ahead of only Memphis) and one of just five franchises who made less than $500k per home game (the league average was just under a million). They were also second worst in fans per game at just 8,969 and what makes this even worse is that the Wolves gave out an average of 5,205 TICKETS PER GAME!!!!! Do the math on that, and you had only 3,764 people a night show up who ACTUALLY PAID FOR THEIR TICKET?!?!?!? That is...that is...yeah I don't even have words for that.
Which makes it even more mind-blowing that the Wolves didn't take Rubio and Steph Curry with their top 2 picks last month, and just start throwing the full-court press at Rubio about how great his life and career will be in Minnesota playing alongside Big Al Jefferson, Kevin Love and Curry. Hire a coach who plays uptempo small-ball like Mike D'Antoni or Don Nelson and score 120 a night. Who cares if you're giving up 130 some nights (ok a lot of nights)? They'd suddenly be a young team with tons of potential and-gasp!- THEY'D BE REALLY FUN TO WATCH!?!?!? You're telling me you wouldn't pay for Wolves tickets to watch those four run up and down all night?
Instead, Kahn treats Rubio like he doesn't need him, drafts another point guard he couldn't possibly play with as insurance on Rubio, and now is sitting saying he really doesn't care if the kid stays in Spain for two more years? Great way to treat the one player from this draft other than Blake Griffin who could get your fanbase excited. HOW IS THAT A PLAN?!?? HOW IS THAT A GOOD IDEA?!?!!?!? Instead of trying to inspire and excite your fanbase by bringing Rubio and Curry to town, you're going to piss off the 3,764 paying customers you have left? What is Kahn trying to do- find a new and even lower rock bottom? Does he want to get out-sold by the Lynx? Owner Glen Taylor was running $5 upper bowl season ticket packages, and $15 for the lower bowl- and STILL no one wants to buy them right now. Had they drafted Rubio and Curry and showered Rubio with love, adoration, and more love (and as the Sports GUy said in his Friday mailbag, they could sign Juan Carlos Navaro or even deal for Marc Gasol or something so he's got a few Spanish buddies to hang out with) Minnesota's pro basketball fans would be excited about the upcoming season and would be BUYING TICKETS! Instead, most of us are sitting here waiting for the Rubio thing to play out, and we're expecting it to end badly. Why? Because it's the Timberwolves and it's what the fans have come to expect since 1989.
...One other thing about Kahn, since apparently this is turning into an anti-Kahn Monday Musings- his rationale for why they took Johnny Flynn over Steph Curry is not only ridiculous, but it makes it look like he thinks the average basketball fan knows nothing about the game. Kahn has said in interviews, on both the Dan Patrick Show and Dan Barreiro's show (and possibly also in print with the Strib), that not only did they like Flynn better than Curry, but that since Curry was selling himself before the draft as a natural point guard, then for those questioning him taking two point guards, how would it be any different if they had taken Curry? Yep, according to Kahn, we're supposed to ignore the literally hundreds of hours of gametape we have on Curry that shows he's a lethal scorer who can also be a team's primary ballhandler (which in simpler terms we like to call a "combo guard") and instead believe his agent who says he's the next Jason Kidd. Really Kahn? You're telling us you're basing your assessment of Curry's NBA potential off of what his agent says instead of his game tape? Honestly, Kahn apparently assumes that basketball fans, and especially those in Minnesota, have an basketball IQ of less than zero, because you'd have to be really, really dumb to watch the college careers of Flynn and Curry and believe that not only are both of them true point guards, but that Flynn (who is 5'10 and can't shoot) is a much better fit for Rubio than Curry. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome once again to the David Kahn Era! And we didn't think it could get any worse than Kevin McHale.
...I didn't watch UFC 100 and I doubt I'd watch UFC 101 or 102 or 103...well, you get the idea. I'm not an MMA fan but I did hear and did read about Brock Lesnar's antics and comments and if I'm a non-MMA fan and I'm clicking on stories to find out what happened, that can't be a bad thing, right? I agree with Dana White that this is NOT the WWE and Lesnar needs to tone it down, but at the same time White's sport is gaining more attention, and potentially a GREAT villian. And all sports are better with a great villian.
...last week Sid Hartman was banging the drum for the Twins to deal for Pirates 2B Freddy Sanchez...and for once I agree with him. Sanchez is maybe league-average defensively, and would be a drop from Brendan Harris or Matt Tolbert or Nicky Punto or whomever they're running out there now. But offensively he'd be a huge upgrade (I personally prefer Harris at short with Little Nicky Punto coming off the bench. Yes Punto has been very good defensively but he's a zero, or less than that, at the plate) as he's currently posting a .316/.356/.478 (for an OPS of .834- which would not only be 5th best on the Twins behind Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Cuddy, but is also 4th best among all MLB second basemen), and would give them a solid #2 hitter for the first time in, well, who was the last good 2 hitter the Twinkies had? Exactly. Of course, this would cost the Twins a couple of prospects AND would mean they'd have to take on more money, so the chances of it happening are probably slim and none. Oh well. If only they had a brand new tax-payer paid cash cow of a stadium coming next year that will give the Twins budget a HUGE financial boost.
...speaking of Minnesota teams out of touch with reality, how about the Timberwolves and GM David Kahn playing hardball with Ricky Rubio and trying to convince us they don't need him? Really David? Have you looked at your team's finances from last season? Because thanks to this article on cbssports.com, I have- and the numbers do NOT look good for you. CBS and NBA writer Ken Berger got ahold of the NBA's 2008 league-wide revenue report, and the results aren't pretty, especially for the Wolves. These numbers are not the inflated ticket sales number teams try to throw at you- these are how many people actually paid AND showed up to watch games. The Wolves were second worst in ticket revenue (ahead of only Memphis) and one of just five franchises who made less than $500k per home game (the league average was just under a million). They were also second worst in fans per game at just 8,969 and what makes this even worse is that the Wolves gave out an average of 5,205 TICKETS PER GAME!!!!! Do the math on that, and you had only 3,764 people a night show up who ACTUALLY PAID FOR THEIR TICKET?!?!?!? That is...that is...yeah I don't even have words for that.
Which makes it even more mind-blowing that the Wolves didn't take Rubio and Steph Curry with their top 2 picks last month, and just start throwing the full-court press at Rubio about how great his life and career will be in Minnesota playing alongside Big Al Jefferson, Kevin Love and Curry. Hire a coach who plays uptempo small-ball like Mike D'Antoni or Don Nelson and score 120 a night. Who cares if you're giving up 130 some nights (ok a lot of nights)? They'd suddenly be a young team with tons of potential and-gasp!- THEY'D BE REALLY FUN TO WATCH!?!?!? You're telling me you wouldn't pay for Wolves tickets to watch those four run up and down all night?
Instead, Kahn treats Rubio like he doesn't need him, drafts another point guard he couldn't possibly play with as insurance on Rubio, and now is sitting saying he really doesn't care if the kid stays in Spain for two more years? Great way to treat the one player from this draft other than Blake Griffin who could get your fanbase excited. HOW IS THAT A PLAN?!?? HOW IS THAT A GOOD IDEA?!?!!?!? Instead of trying to inspire and excite your fanbase by bringing Rubio and Curry to town, you're going to piss off the 3,764 paying customers you have left? What is Kahn trying to do- find a new and even lower rock bottom? Does he want to get out-sold by the Lynx? Owner Glen Taylor was running $5 upper bowl season ticket packages, and $15 for the lower bowl- and STILL no one wants to buy them right now. Had they drafted Rubio and Curry and showered Rubio with love, adoration, and more love (and as the Sports GUy said in his Friday mailbag, they could sign Juan Carlos Navaro or even deal for Marc Gasol or something so he's got a few Spanish buddies to hang out with) Minnesota's pro basketball fans would be excited about the upcoming season and would be BUYING TICKETS! Instead, most of us are sitting here waiting for the Rubio thing to play out, and we're expecting it to end badly. Why? Because it's the Timberwolves and it's what the fans have come to expect since 1989.
...One other thing about Kahn, since apparently this is turning into an anti-Kahn Monday Musings- his rationale for why they took Johnny Flynn over Steph Curry is not only ridiculous, but it makes it look like he thinks the average basketball fan knows nothing about the game. Kahn has said in interviews, on both the Dan Patrick Show and Dan Barreiro's show (and possibly also in print with the Strib), that not only did they like Flynn better than Curry, but that since Curry was selling himself before the draft as a natural point guard, then for those questioning him taking two point guards, how would it be any different if they had taken Curry? Yep, according to Kahn, we're supposed to ignore the literally hundreds of hours of gametape we have on Curry that shows he's a lethal scorer who can also be a team's primary ballhandler (which in simpler terms we like to call a "combo guard") and instead believe his agent who says he's the next Jason Kidd. Really Kahn? You're telling us you're basing your assessment of Curry's NBA potential off of what his agent says instead of his game tape? Honestly, Kahn apparently assumes that basketball fans, and especially those in Minnesota, have an basketball IQ of less than zero, because you'd have to be really, really dumb to watch the college careers of Flynn and Curry and believe that not only are both of them true point guards, but that Flynn (who is 5'10 and can't shoot) is a much better fit for Rubio than Curry. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome once again to the David Kahn Era! And we didn't think it could get any worse than Kevin McHale.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Kahn-man?
This must be what the guys in "The Hangover" felt like. Waking up bewildered, seeing everything in shambles, missing a buddy, and wondering just what the hell happened last night?
Timberwolves fans can empathize. Just like for a bachelor party in Vegas, last night began with the anticipation and excitement that anything was possible. Would the Wolves deal up to get the clear second-best player in the draft in Ricky Rubio? Or would they stay at 5 and 6 and take what falls to them? The Clips started off the night by actually doing the right thing in taking Blake Griffin. Memphis was up next- were they going to deal the pick? Keep it? Were the Wolves dealing up to get Rubio? The Grizz kept it and because they're the Grizz, they take Hasheem Thabeet, a guy who me and plenty of others think is going to be a Shawn Bradley-level bust. I text to Jer "Thank you Memphis!"
The Stolen Sonics pick third, and here's where the Rubio dream is going to die- GM Sam Presti seems to have made the right move everytime...except he takes James Harden! ANother guy who is going to be a bust! I text again to Jer "Thank you Stolen Sonics!!" Just one team between Sota and Rubio- and unfortunately it's Sacramento, who is rumored to love Rubio, and even worse, Rubio apparently loves the idea of playing in Sacto. And so they take...Tyreke Evans!
HOLY $&%^&!!!! WE"RE GETTING RICKY RUBIO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Wolves make the second easiest pick in the draft and take Rubio!!! YES! WE GOT HIM! CALL THE TARGET CENTER! GET YOUR TICKETS! WE'VE FINALLY GOT ANOTHER STAR!! VIVA EL RUBIO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And to make it even better, we're going to get Steph Curry at 6! Steph Curry! Two of the most exciting players in the draft on the Timberwolves! If not that, we can deal down for somebody who wants Curry and grab DeMar DeRozan of USC. We're set! Hello promise! Hello bright future! Hello light at the end of the tunnel!
Then things when you least expect it, something went horribly wrong. GM David Kahn takes another point guard Jonny Flynn of Syracuse. Ummm...
WWWWWHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAATTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
I guess that light at the end of the tunnel was a train, not hope. You cannot play two point guards, one who could be the best passer to come into the league in a decade, and the other who's not even 6 feet tall, together. You just can't. Rubio and Curry would have been a GREAT combo, but neither Rubio or Flynn can shoot a lick. It'd be like the Vikings having the 5th and 6th overall picks in the NFL draft and taking Mark Sanchez and Matt Stafford. You cannot play Rubio and Flynn together anymore than you can play Sanchez and Stafford at the same time. It just doesn't make sense!
In interviews last night and this morning, Kahn claims they CAN play together, that he's not planning to trade either guy, and that they can absolutely work in the new NBA where guards are now allowed to run wild, even going so far as using the example of Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars. Really David? We're going to use a two-time championship backcourt of two possible Hall-of-Famers (Thomas is a lock and Dumars an outside chance) that played IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT ERA?!?!?!? Thomas was one of the best guards EVER, and Dumars, while he didn't have a great outside shot was bigger, stronger and much more of a traditional two guard than Flynn will ever be. I LOVE Rubio, and like Flynn, but not on the same team.
So what now? I was fine with dealing Lawson and Calathes (according to the great Wolves blog canabishoopus.com, the future #1 the Wolves will get from Denver for Lawson actually belongs to Charlotte, but has plenty of protection: top 12 protected in 2010, top 10 protected in 2011, top 8 protected in 2012, top 3 protected in 2013, and unprotected in the 2014.), and maybe what all this really amounts to is Kahn believing he took the two best players available and will sort it out as we go. Fine, except you could have taken Curry instead of Flynn and not only keep the same mentality, but actually had a functioning backcourt.
Fred Hoiberg was on KFAN this morning with PA and Charch, and said the phones have been ringing off the hook with interests and trade requests about Rubio, yet maintained they hope and want and plan on Rubio playing here this season. I hope so. The only thing that could make all of this worse as a Wolves fan is if Rubio falls into their lap at 5 and they end up dealing him. I would hope Wolves fans would revolt with torches and pitchforks if Kahn and crew don't do everything humanly possible to make sure Rubio is here this season. If you let him use the excuse that his buyout is too much and he stays in Spain for another year or two, then you failed. Failed. You don't use the fifth pick in the NBA draft to stash a guy in Europe for a year or two. And you don't draft Jonny Flynn just in case Rubio doesn't come over. Failed.
After the first couple of weeks of David Kahn, I'm very nervous. I expressed this during the hiring process when two very qualified candidates, Ted Lindsey in San Antonio and Tom Penn in Portland, pulled out of the search process. I wondered then why two guys who have dreamed about being GM's would pass up what looks to be a great opportunity to shape a team with plenty of assets, picks and cap room exactly as they wanted it. What were we not being told? What was going on behind the scenes that were driving these guys away? I opined at the time that Taylor was telling his candidates that they had to keep McHale. Dan Barreiro has said recently a very good source is telling him that Rob Moore's son has become heavily involved and is even making decisions, which cuts into the power of the would-be GM.
Whatever it was that was keeping qualified candidates away, we ended up with David Kahn, a guy who had never ran a team (you'll hear he was GM of the Pacers, but Donnie Walsh ran that team. Kahn had no real power there AND DIDN"T EVEN LIVE IN INDIANA AT THE TIME!!!!!!!!!!) and was about as unqualified as McHAle was when he got the job. Yet the guy acted like he was Red Auerbach or Jerry West, and talked to the media like he was trying to explain quantam physics to a bunch of four year olds. Can you be an a**hole and be successful? Of course you can, but it might help to DO something first before acting like you're the smartest basketball man who's ever lived! He took way too long to make the no-brainer decision to fire McHale, then made a nice deal with Washington, had Rubio fall in his lap...and then took another point guard, which apparently has only infuriated Rubio. Brilliant.
It should be an interesting next few months: will Rubio or Flynn be traded? Who else is getting dealt? What will the team look like at the end of October? For now, Kahn gets an incomplete grade for his first draft, because I still cannot and will not believe he truly thinks Rubio and Flynn will play together. We shall see.
I know it's early, and I know there's still so much that can and will happen, but I just get the feeling that as a Wolves fan, going from McHale to Kahn is like going from the Titanic to the Hindenburg. It feels great at first to be free and safe and be somewhere different and exciting...and yet you can't fight the notion that something feels strangely familiar.
Timberwolves fans can empathize. Just like for a bachelor party in Vegas, last night began with the anticipation and excitement that anything was possible. Would the Wolves deal up to get the clear second-best player in the draft in Ricky Rubio? Or would they stay at 5 and 6 and take what falls to them? The Clips started off the night by actually doing the right thing in taking Blake Griffin. Memphis was up next- were they going to deal the pick? Keep it? Were the Wolves dealing up to get Rubio? The Grizz kept it and because they're the Grizz, they take Hasheem Thabeet, a guy who me and plenty of others think is going to be a Shawn Bradley-level bust. I text to Jer "Thank you Memphis!"
The Stolen Sonics pick third, and here's where the Rubio dream is going to die- GM Sam Presti seems to have made the right move everytime...except he takes James Harden! ANother guy who is going to be a bust! I text again to Jer "Thank you Stolen Sonics!!" Just one team between Sota and Rubio- and unfortunately it's Sacramento, who is rumored to love Rubio, and even worse, Rubio apparently loves the idea of playing in Sacto. And so they take...Tyreke Evans!
HOLY $&%^&!!!! WE"RE GETTING RICKY RUBIO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Wolves make the second easiest pick in the draft and take Rubio!!! YES! WE GOT HIM! CALL THE TARGET CENTER! GET YOUR TICKETS! WE'VE FINALLY GOT ANOTHER STAR!! VIVA EL RUBIO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And to make it even better, we're going to get Steph Curry at 6! Steph Curry! Two of the most exciting players in the draft on the Timberwolves! If not that, we can deal down for somebody who wants Curry and grab DeMar DeRozan of USC. We're set! Hello promise! Hello bright future! Hello light at the end of the tunnel!
Then things when you least expect it, something went horribly wrong. GM David Kahn takes another point guard Jonny Flynn of Syracuse. Ummm...
WWWWWHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAATTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
I guess that light at the end of the tunnel was a train, not hope. You cannot play two point guards, one who could be the best passer to come into the league in a decade, and the other who's not even 6 feet tall, together. You just can't. Rubio and Curry would have been a GREAT combo, but neither Rubio or Flynn can shoot a lick. It'd be like the Vikings having the 5th and 6th overall picks in the NFL draft and taking Mark Sanchez and Matt Stafford. You cannot play Rubio and Flynn together anymore than you can play Sanchez and Stafford at the same time. It just doesn't make sense!
In interviews last night and this morning, Kahn claims they CAN play together, that he's not planning to trade either guy, and that they can absolutely work in the new NBA where guards are now allowed to run wild, even going so far as using the example of Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars. Really David? We're going to use a two-time championship backcourt of two possible Hall-of-Famers (Thomas is a lock and Dumars an outside chance) that played IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT ERA?!?!?!? Thomas was one of the best guards EVER, and Dumars, while he didn't have a great outside shot was bigger, stronger and much more of a traditional two guard than Flynn will ever be. I LOVE Rubio, and like Flynn, but not on the same team.
So what now? I was fine with dealing Lawson and Calathes (according to the great Wolves blog canabishoopus.com, the future #1 the Wolves will get from Denver for Lawson actually belongs to Charlotte, but has plenty of protection: top 12 protected in 2010, top 10 protected in 2011, top 8 protected in 2012, top 3 protected in 2013, and unprotected in the 2014.), and maybe what all this really amounts to is Kahn believing he took the two best players available and will sort it out as we go. Fine, except you could have taken Curry instead of Flynn and not only keep the same mentality, but actually had a functioning backcourt.
Fred Hoiberg was on KFAN this morning with PA and Charch, and said the phones have been ringing off the hook with interests and trade requests about Rubio, yet maintained they hope and want and plan on Rubio playing here this season. I hope so. The only thing that could make all of this worse as a Wolves fan is if Rubio falls into their lap at 5 and they end up dealing him. I would hope Wolves fans would revolt with torches and pitchforks if Kahn and crew don't do everything humanly possible to make sure Rubio is here this season. If you let him use the excuse that his buyout is too much and he stays in Spain for another year or two, then you failed. Failed. You don't use the fifth pick in the NBA draft to stash a guy in Europe for a year or two. And you don't draft Jonny Flynn just in case Rubio doesn't come over. Failed.
After the first couple of weeks of David Kahn, I'm very nervous. I expressed this during the hiring process when two very qualified candidates, Ted Lindsey in San Antonio and Tom Penn in Portland, pulled out of the search process. I wondered then why two guys who have dreamed about being GM's would pass up what looks to be a great opportunity to shape a team with plenty of assets, picks and cap room exactly as they wanted it. What were we not being told? What was going on behind the scenes that were driving these guys away? I opined at the time that Taylor was telling his candidates that they had to keep McHale. Dan Barreiro has said recently a very good source is telling him that Rob Moore's son has become heavily involved and is even making decisions, which cuts into the power of the would-be GM.
Whatever it was that was keeping qualified candidates away, we ended up with David Kahn, a guy who had never ran a team (you'll hear he was GM of the Pacers, but Donnie Walsh ran that team. Kahn had no real power there AND DIDN"T EVEN LIVE IN INDIANA AT THE TIME!!!!!!!!!!) and was about as unqualified as McHAle was when he got the job. Yet the guy acted like he was Red Auerbach or Jerry West, and talked to the media like he was trying to explain quantam physics to a bunch of four year olds. Can you be an a**hole and be successful? Of course you can, but it might help to DO something first before acting like you're the smartest basketball man who's ever lived! He took way too long to make the no-brainer decision to fire McHale, then made a nice deal with Washington, had Rubio fall in his lap...and then took another point guard, which apparently has only infuriated Rubio. Brilliant.
It should be an interesting next few months: will Rubio or Flynn be traded? Who else is getting dealt? What will the team look like at the end of October? For now, Kahn gets an incomplete grade for his first draft, because I still cannot and will not believe he truly thinks Rubio and Flynn will play together. We shall see.
I know it's early, and I know there's still so much that can and will happen, but I just get the feeling that as a Wolves fan, going from McHale to Kahn is like going from the Titanic to the Hindenburg. It feels great at first to be free and safe and be somewhere different and exciting...and yet you can't fight the notion that something feels strangely familiar.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Gee Wiz!
Well then. David Kahn has gotten to work and pulled off his first trade. What does it mean? We won't know that until Thursday night is finished, but we do know Kahn was serious about shaking up the roster. In dealing starting guards Mike Miller (1 yr left at about $9 million) and Randy Foye (1 yr left on his rookie deal) to the Wizards for Etan Thomas (bye!), Darius Songalia (see ya!), Oleksiy Pecherov (I don't even know you) and the #5 pick, the Wolves are now the team to watch at tomorrow night's draft. They now hold FOUR 1st round picks at #5, 6, 18, and 28, and it makes zero sense to hang onto all four of them.
I hope- I really, really, REALLY hope- that Kahn's plan is to deal two of those to Memphis for the #2 pick to take Ricky Rubio. I know the Wolves have been rumored to love Hasheem Thabeet (and as you know, I'm on record as saying Thabeet will be a bust), but it doesn't make much sense to me to deal both your starting guards away and then take a center with your top pick. This is NOT a good draft and it's not deep, and after Griffin and Rubio it's filled with nothing but question marks. You're not getting Griffin away from the Clippers (what kind of world are we living in where the Clippers might actually do the smart thing?), so if you have an opportunity to get the other "as close to a sure thing as you can get" guy, you go get him.
If they have to give up 5 and 6, then make it happen. If you have to give up 6 and Kevin Love, or one of those two picks and another player not named Al Jefferson, you do it. The Wolves do not need four more rookies from a weak draft, they need a sure thing to go with Jefferson. They also should try and get Rubio's buddy Marc Gasol included in the deal. It would ease the culture shock from Spain to Minnesota, and if you start winning, you've got a chance to keep them around a long time.
After that, I'd package the rest of your picks to climb back into the top 12 to take either Earl Clark from Louisville or DeJuan Blair from Pitt. Clark's really the only other guy in this draft besides Griffin and Rubio with all-star potential, although his chances of reaching it are much less. Still, in a draft this week, I'd roll the dice on potential compared to what else is available.
They could always stay at 5 and 6 and take Tyreke Evans and Steph Curry, Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, or Demar DeRozan, but I'd much prefer to see them grab Rubio.
Guys I don't want to see in a Wolves uniform? I mentioned Thabeet and BJ Mullens last week, who are second and third on my "guaranteed to be busts" list. Who's #1? None of than Gonzaga's Austin Daye. As a Gonzaga fan I watched plenty of Zags games last year, and finding Daye in those games was like playing "Where'd Waldo?" Yes he's 6'11 with a smooth jumper and good handles- BUT HE'S SOFT!! In the WCC on a Zags team who gave him every opportunity to be The Man, Daye was practically non-existent. Any team drafting him is throwing away a first round pick. He's #1 on my list of busts (BJ Mullens is second, Thabeet third)- he looks great in workouts but has no passion, intensity, or aggressiveness on the court.
I had wondered why Daye bothered to stay in the draft and not go back to Gonzaga and prove himself, but somebody on sportingnews.com (I read it yesterday and now can't find the article) made a great point- what if Daye KNOWS this is what he is? What if he's self-aware enough to know that he IS soft and if he goes back to Gonzaga he's going to get exposed as a fraud, whereas this year in the weakest draft in a decade, he's guaranteed first round money?
Again, stay the hell away from Austin Daye. Please!
I hope- I really, really, REALLY hope- that Kahn's plan is to deal two of those to Memphis for the #2 pick to take Ricky Rubio. I know the Wolves have been rumored to love Hasheem Thabeet (and as you know, I'm on record as saying Thabeet will be a bust), but it doesn't make much sense to me to deal both your starting guards away and then take a center with your top pick. This is NOT a good draft and it's not deep, and after Griffin and Rubio it's filled with nothing but question marks. You're not getting Griffin away from the Clippers (what kind of world are we living in where the Clippers might actually do the smart thing?), so if you have an opportunity to get the other "as close to a sure thing as you can get" guy, you go get him.
If they have to give up 5 and 6, then make it happen. If you have to give up 6 and Kevin Love, or one of those two picks and another player not named Al Jefferson, you do it. The Wolves do not need four more rookies from a weak draft, they need a sure thing to go with Jefferson. They also should try and get Rubio's buddy Marc Gasol included in the deal. It would ease the culture shock from Spain to Minnesota, and if you start winning, you've got a chance to keep them around a long time.
After that, I'd package the rest of your picks to climb back into the top 12 to take either Earl Clark from Louisville or DeJuan Blair from Pitt. Clark's really the only other guy in this draft besides Griffin and Rubio with all-star potential, although his chances of reaching it are much less. Still, in a draft this week, I'd roll the dice on potential compared to what else is available.
They could always stay at 5 and 6 and take Tyreke Evans and Steph Curry, Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, or Demar DeRozan, but I'd much prefer to see them grab Rubio.
Guys I don't want to see in a Wolves uniform? I mentioned Thabeet and BJ Mullens last week, who are second and third on my "guaranteed to be busts" list. Who's #1? None of than Gonzaga's Austin Daye. As a Gonzaga fan I watched plenty of Zags games last year, and finding Daye in those games was like playing "Where'd Waldo?" Yes he's 6'11 with a smooth jumper and good handles- BUT HE'S SOFT!! In the WCC on a Zags team who gave him every opportunity to be The Man, Daye was practically non-existent. Any team drafting him is throwing away a first round pick. He's #1 on my list of busts (BJ Mullens is second, Thabeet third)- he looks great in workouts but has no passion, intensity, or aggressiveness on the court.
I had wondered why Daye bothered to stay in the draft and not go back to Gonzaga and prove himself, but somebody on sportingnews.com (I read it yesterday and now can't find the article) made a great point- what if Daye KNOWS this is what he is? What if he's self-aware enough to know that he IS soft and if he goes back to Gonzaga he's going to get exposed as a fraud, whereas this year in the weakest draft in a decade, he's guaranteed first round money?
Again, stay the hell away from Austin Daye. Please!
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