Jeff: The East Part Deux

2ND ROUND OR BUST:

7. WASHINGTON WIZARDS: I probably would have let Caron Butler play a season in DC before giving him a five-year extension. Will he feel he has to earn it every night, or be one of those guys who coasts through? To replace Larry Hughes, the Wiz need a full effort from both Butler and free agent signee Antonio Daniels. With Arenas and Jamison back, at least scoring won't be a problem, and maybe now gunner Jarvis Hayes will get a chance.

6. MILWAUKEE BUCKS: The Bucks stole Jamal McGloire from the Hornets, and suddenly this team goes from the brink of the playoffs to scary. They HAD to overpay for Redd, and he'll be a key, but the most important player in Brewland is TJ Ford. IF he regains his rookie season form, Ford's an all-star and the Bucks are suddenly making the Pistons and Pacers nervous. My favorite thing with this team is that we can finally begin the "Who was a worse pick?" debate between Bogut and Darko. Have fun with that one, and remember: there's really no wrong answer.

5. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS: I'm going to say Lebron has two more years before he starts averaging a triple-double. I don't think he can be better than MJ, but I'm willing to hear the argument. HUghes was a good get, and will flourish with open dunks and shots courtesy of LBJ, as will Damon Jones, Donyell Marshall (maybe the most underrated signing of the offseason), and just about everybody else. Big Z looks more like a Big Distraction to me, but if his feet stay on and he doesn't whine too much about touches, this could work. How good do you think Carlos Boozer's feeling about things right about now? I don't feel sorry for him either.

THE CONTENDERS:

4. DETROIT PISTONS: They're the best team in the conference when it matters, but they coasted through the regular season last year and still made the Finals. Where's the incentive to not do the same this year? Flipnosis has never been a real rah-rah guy, and guys with this kind of track record for winning probably wouldn't listen even if he was. They won't have the best record, but they're still the team to beat come April.

3. INDIANA PACERS: This looks crazy, but hear me out: Ron-Ron will be playing like a house-afire this year, and that's bound to spread to the team. They're right there with the Pistons, but they all play in the toughest division in the league, and that's going to take its toll. It'll keep them from the best record, but anybody from the Central that makes it (at last check I have four of the five) will be playoff tested before the 2nd season even starts. Even more fun than the Darko/Bogut debate will be seeing Don Stern have to present Ron-Ron with both the Defensive Player of the Year award AND Comeback POY. And before you start saying nobody would vote for him for the latter, remember Jason Giambi won the same award in baseball this season- you know, his comeback from STEROID ABUSE.

2. NEW JERSEY NETS: They're a distant 4th in the East, but here's why they finish 2nd: Not only are they the best team in the league's worst division, they're BY FAR the best team in the league's worst division. Nobody in the Atlantic (yes the Raptors have Bosh but they also have absolutely nothing else) has a low-presence to exploit Collins, Krstic, and anything else NJ has in the middle. Kidd and Jefferson will have something to prove after being injured for big chunks of the last two years, and well Vince Carter doesn't have a heart or soul, but since he's getting paid and the guys he's playing with are fun, he's along for the ride. Will this be the year he finally drives the lane with authority, and uses all of his God-given talent? Um no. When it really matters, Vince makes the Vikings D look tough, but hey, if you need a wide open dunk or a fade-away 3, he's your guy. Second round exit coming.

1, MIAMI HEAT: There are no group of people on earth that have bigger egos than NBA players (ok maybe Tom Cruise, but that's about it). The better the player, the bigger the ego, and the bigger the ego, the more the player wants the ball when it matters. Portland and Dallas of a few years back, as well as the Karl Malone/GP Lakers proved this doesn't work. You CAN have too many good players on one team in basketball! In the regular season, talent generally wins, which is why the Heat, along with the fact the Southeast is pretty weak, will cruise to the league's best record. Everybody will play nicey-nice during the year, but when the playoffs begin, that's when the trouble starts. DWade and Shaq not only need the ball in crunchtime, but deserve it, because they've proven they can take over in the clutch. THe problem here are guys like JWill and Antoine Walker, have been selfish players their whole careers (and both are on their third teams, I might add). Why would they change now? What was wrong with keeping Eddie JOnes for one more season and then gaining cap space? Ohhhhhh Pat Riley, that's right. Looks like egos aren't just on the court in the NBA. Despite having the two best players in the league, the HEat won't even make the conference finals, let alone the NBA Finals.