Jeff: Vikes Don't Need to Trade Up for a QB

Since Daunte Culpepper was shipped down to Miami a few weeks ago, there's been plenty of speculation on what the Minnesota Vikings are going to do at quarterback. There's been more than a few folks that would like to see the Vikes, who now have a bushel of first day selections, trade up to get one of the "Big Three" QB's: Matt Leinart, Vince Young, or Jay Cutler. Leinart and Young will be top 10 selections, but there's a chance Cutler could slip to as low as the 13th pick, where the Baltimore Ravens could be in the market for another young QB. Could the Vikes trade up with say Cleveland at 12 or the Rams at 11 to take Cutler? Since trading Daunte, I've been in the camp that says either a)keep all those picks and draft a QB in the 2nd or third round or b)deal it for Matt Schaub. The more I've thought about it, the more I think they should stay put at 17, take the best available player, and draft a quarterback in the 2nd or 3rd round. And it looks like history agrees me.

Looking back at past drafts, the success rate for first round QB's is awful. Since 1991, 34 QB's have been drafted in the first round. Only one has won a Super Bowl, and only 3 more have even played in the Big Game. Conversely, since '91 there's been 4 QB's that were either later than 1st round picks or not drafted at all, that have won Super Bowls. Here's a list of all the 1st rd QB's since '91, as well as later round selections that have started at least a few games in the NFL (Craig Whelihan was mentioned only for having the best stache of the 90's, and for bridging the stache gap between Jeff Hostetler and Jake Plummer. I think I speak for all of us when I say "Thank you, Craig."):

1991:
1st Round
16. Dan McGwire, SDSU (Seahawks)
24. Todd Maranovich, USC (Raiders)
Others: (2nd) Brett Favre, Southern Miss (Falcons)

1992:
6. David Klingler, Houston (Bengals)
25. Tommy Maddox, UCLA (Broncos)
Others: (4th) Craig Erickson, Miami (Cowboys)
(6th) Jeff Blake, East Carolina (Jets)
(9th) Brad Johnson, Florida State (Vikings)

1993:
1. Drew Bledsoe, Washington St (Patriots)
2. Rick Mirer, Notre Dame (Seahawks)
Others: (3rd) Billy Joe Hobert, Washington (Raiders)
(5th) Mark Brunell, Washington (Packers)
(8th) Elvis Grbac, Michigan (Chiefs), Trent Green, Indiana (Rams)

1994:
3. Heath Shuler, Tennessee (Redskins)
6. Trent Dilfer, Fresno St. (Buccaneers)
Others: (7th) Gus Freotte, Tulsa (Redskins)

1995:
3. Steve McNair, Alcorn St (Titans)
5. Kerry Collins, Penn St (Panthers)
Others: (2nd) Kordell Stewart, Colorado (Steelers)
(4th) Rob Johnson, USC (Jaguars)
(6th) Craig Whelihan, Pacific (Chargers)

1996:
1st Round- none
Others: (2nd) Tony Banks, Michigan St (Rams)

1997:
26. Jim Drunkenmiller, Virginia Tech (49ers)
Others: (2nd) Jake Plummer, Arizona St (Cardinals)
(4th) Danny Wuerffel, Florida (Redskins)

1998:
1. Peyton Manning, Tennessee (Colts)
2. Ryan Leaf, Washington St (Chargers)
Others: (2nd) Charlie Batch, Eastern Michigan (Lions)
(3rd) Brian Griese, Michigan (Broncos)
(6th) Matt Hasselbeck, Boston College (Packers)

1999:
1. Tim Couch, Kentucky (Browns)
2. Donovan McNabb, Syracuse (Eagles)
3. Akili Smith, Oregon (Bengals)
11. Daunte Culpepper, Central Florida (Vikings)
12. Cade McNown, UCLA (Bears)
Others: (2nd) Shaun King, Tulane (Bucs)
(4th) Aaron Brooks, Virginia (Packers)

2000:
18. Chad Pennington, Marshall (J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets!)
Others: (6th) Marc Bulger, West Virginia (Rams), Tom Brady, Michigan (Patriots)

2001:
1. Mike Vick, Virginia Tech (Falcons)
Others: (2nd) Drew Brees, Purdue (Chargers), Quincy Carter, Georgia (Cowboys), Marques Tuiasosopo, Washington (Raiders)
(4th) Chris Weinke, Florida St (Panthers)
(5th) Mike McMahon, Rutgers (Lions), AJ Feeley, Oregon (Eagles)

2002:
1. David Carr, Fresno St (Texans)
3. Joey Harrington, Oregon (Lions)
32. Patrick Ramsey, Tulane (Redskins)
Others: (3rd) Josh McCown, Sam Houston St (Cardinals)
(4th) David Gerrard, East Carolina (Jaguars)

2003:
1. Carson Palmer, USC (Bengals)
7. Byron Leftwich, Marshall (Jaguars)
19. Kyle Boller, California (Ravens)
22. Rex Grossman, Florida (Bears)
Others: (3rd) Chris Simms, Texas (Bucs)

2004:
1. Eli Manning, Ole Miss (Giants)
4. Philip Rivers, NC State (Chargers)
11. Ben Roethlisberger, Miami, OH (Steelers)
22. JP Losman, Tulane (Bills)
Others: (3rd) Matt Schaub, Virginia (Falcons)

2005:
1. Alex Smith, Utah (49ers)
24. Aaron Rodgers, California (Packers)
25. Jason Campbell, Auburn (Redskins)
Others: (3rd) Charlie Frye, Akron (Browns), Andrew Walter, Arizona St (Raiders)
(4th) Kyle Orton, Purdue (Bears)
(7th) Ryan Fitzpatrick, Harvard (Rams)

Not pretty for the 1st rounders, is it? When teams feel like they have to reach for QB's in the first round, in most cases they're REALLY reaching. And as much as it kills me to say it, the Packers have drafted three QB's in the late rounds (Brunell, Brooks, and Hasselback), and developed an undrafted free agent (some guy named Kurt Warner) that have all started at least 4 years in the league. Despite having Favre all that time, they were still spending a late round pick on a QB almost every year. I would LOVE to see the Vikes adopt this strategy. Also, the Vikes might want to think twice about drafting Kellen Clemens from Oregon, since Dan Fouts is the last Duck QB who's actually had some success in the NFL. Just throwing it out there.