Jeff: NBA West Preview Part I

Well here we go with the 3rd Annual MWSR NBA Preview. I'd like to say I'm a year older and a year wiser in making my predictions, but you know that's not true. A 4 part preview as before: non-playoff teams in the West, West playoff teams, and then the same for the East. We start with the 7 teams who won't be making the postseason, and who's only solace is knowing that all those teams except the one from Portland would be in the playoffs if they were in that other conference. Seriously. The West is that loaded.

Scarily enough, I did some research this year on the 7 seasons leading up to this one, from 1999-2000 to 05-06. Here's some things to keep in mind about the Western Conference:
* only two teams have made the playoffs the last 7 years: one's the Spurs, and I bet you won't get the other one (they won't make the playoffs this year, and are somewhere in today's preview, so you've got some time to ponder that because this is going to get wordy!). 4 others have made it at least 5 times.
* Never have more than 3 teams made the playoffs when they didn't make it the previous year, but there was always at least 1 new team every year. What does that tell you? That there's certainly parity in basketball, but not to the extent of football, where almost half the playoff field changes from year-to-year. In basketball one player can dominate a game more than in any other pro team sport, so it's not suprising that teams with dominant players stand a good chance of making the playoffs for as long as that guy is dominant (well unless of course that guy is Kevin Garnett and your GM is incompetent).
* No team has had the conference's top record two years running.
* The Don Stern refused to get rid of his moronic 3 division conference format, but he at least tweaked it a little bit. Unlike last year, where the Nuggets had the 6th best record but got the 3rd seed because they won their division, this year the division winner is guaranteed no worse than 4th. So if two teams from the same division (oh like say Dallas and San Antonio) have the 2 best records, they will get the top 2 seeds.
* Just for a point of reference, here's how the team's finished last year:

WESTERN W L PCT GB
1. San Antonio* 63 19 0.768 0.0
2. Phoenix* 54 28 0.659 9.0
3. Denver* 44 38 0.537 19.0
4. Dallas 60 22 0.732 3.0
5. Memphis 49 33 0.598 14.0
6. L.A. Clippers 47 35 0.573 16.0
7. L.A. Lakers 45 37 0.549 18.0
8. Sacramento 44 38 0.537 19.0

9. Utah 41 41 0.500 22.0
10. NO/Oklahoma 38 44 0.463 25.0
11. Seattle 35 47 0.427 28.0
12. Houston 34 48 0.415 29.0
13. Golden State 34 48 0.415 29.0
14. Minnesota 33 49 0.402 30.0
15. Portland 21 61 0.256 42.0

On with the preview then...

15. PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS, Northwest Division (2005 record: 21-61)
Not sure how things get worse for Portland. They took one of the most passionate and loyal fanbases in the country and killed them with pot-smokin' gun-totin' dog-fightin' thugs who were much better at getting arrested than making the playoffs. Now owner Paul Allen is complaining about a horrible arena lease THAT HE WILLINGLY SIGNED, and wants to move the team. And the final straw was passing on Adam Morrison, a guy that would have actually brought fans back to the Rose Garden, for Lamarcus Aldrige, who I said last year and will continually say is soft and will make Sto Swift look consistent. The Brandon Roy pick was a good one, but they could have had him and Morrison. Just another day at the office for the Blazers.

14. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES, Northwest (33-49)
KG had a good year last year, and this team still only won 33 games. Now they're counting on Mike James, who magically came alive during his free-agent-to-be year, and a rookie in Randy Foye to help Garnett carry this team back to the playoffs? Really? Have I mentioned they have NOTHING in the post and a $34 million dollar European nothing at point guard? Garnett could have an MVP year, James could average similar numbers to last year and Foye could win rookie of the year and they're STILL not going to the playoffs. Minnesotans, catch KG while you can because he won't be here next year. But don't worry, Kevin McHale probably will be.

13. OKLAHOMA CITY SONICS, Northwest (35-47)
Poor Howard Schultz. The Starbucks founder and BILLIONAIRE just couldn't doop the fine folks of the Emerald City into building him a brand new arena. So what'd he do? Slammed down his triple espresso skim latte in a hissy fit and sold the team in a huff to buyers in Oklahoma that will move the team down there in 2007. Oh and poor Howard, the guy who claimed the team was hemorraging money in Key Arena, got $250 million more than he paid for the Sonics. Thanks for ruining my basketball team, Howard. What's left is a decent core with Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, and Chris Wilcox, but there's not enough front-court depth to keep this team in the playoff hunt. It'll also be hard for the guys to concentrate when the new owners are telling the players "no no you'll LOVE Oklahoma! We've got wind and rodeos! And cows! And cowboy hats! You'll love them!" Oklahoma will make Utah look like Vegas in comparison.

12. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES, Southwest (49-33)
No Pau Gasol for the first two months means no playoffs for the Grizz. Even I can do that math. But as will be mentioned 9,482,765 times between now and draft day 2007, this is one of the best drafts in decades, so it's not the worst year to take a one year hiatus from the playoffs. Oh and quick, can you name another Grizzly besides Gasol? Didn't think so. Mike Skinny Miller will keep bombing threes, and the transition year should give good experience for rooks Rudy Gay and Kyle Lowery. Definitely a team with a bright future...well as bright as can be for a team that will be owned by Dukie's Christian Laettner and Brian Davis. Who else is in that ownership group? Alaa Abdulnaby, Thomas Hill, and Cherokee Parks?

11. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS, Southwest (38-44)
Here begins the list of 11 playoff teams in the Western Conference. The problem for 3 of them is: they're only taking 8. The Hornets were last year's surprise team, right in the playoff hunt before losing 11 of 14 in March to knock themselves out of contention. A good young team saw some breakout years from power forward David West, and Rookie-of-the-Year point guard Chris Paul. Now with the big additions of small forward Peja Stojakovic and center Tyson Chandler, the Hornets should be all set to continue their rise into the playoffs right? Wrong. New Orleans played over their heads for most of the year, and came back to earth late in the season. Chris Paul will be an allstar, and David West will be solid, but there's still way too many holes in this lineup. Bobby Jackson won't be as good for this team as the departed Speedy Claxton was, and although Peja Stojakovic is a nice addition on the perimeter, he's not the player he used to be, and brings nothing else to the table besides shooting and a beard. Tyson Chandler? People are acting like the Hornest picked up the next Bill Russell. Please. The guy averaged 6 pts, 9 rebs, and 1.5 blks last year. He's a decent NBA center but not a guy who's going to propel you into the playoffs. THe Hornets are going in the right direction and should be around the 40 win mark, but they'll miss the playoffs this year.

10. SACRAMENTO KINGS, Pacific (44-38)
Here's your trivia answer: yes the Kings have made the playoffs every year of this century, but it looks like that nice run will come to an end in 2007. They've got all-star caliber players in C Brad Miller, PG Mike Bibby, PF Shareef Abdur-Raheem, and of course SF Ron-Ron Artest. A couple of problems in Cali's Capital though: 1st is Artest. I LOVE Ron-Ron when he decides to play, but the guy is a walking circus, and you just can't count on him to behave for 82 games. 2nd was letting Bonzi Wells go. Was he asking for too much? Yes, but who are they going to have replace him? Wells carried the Kings in the 1st round, and almost upset the Spurs. Now he's gone to Houston, and the Kings are going to try and replace him with Francisco Garcia, who's a nice role player, but not an NBA starter. The 3rd problem is depth-- the Kings don't have any, especially in the front court where they have Kenny Thomas in a rotation with Miller and Shareef- and that's it! Injuries or fatigue will take its toll here. The Kings will be around .500, but just out of the playoffs, meaning the Maloof brothers will have more time to spend at their casino in Vegas. Not that they need it.

9. UTAH JAZZ, Northwest (41-41)
I REALLY want to put this team in the playoffs, and in the weak Northwest Division, where it's basically just them and Denver, they've got a good chance. They won 41 games last year while only getting 33 games out of PF Carlos Boozer, using a rookie point guard, and missing their best shooter, Matt Harpring for most of the year. That rookie, Deron Williams, looked much improved by year's end, and Harpring should be back at full strength for the opener. They also added an athletic SG in the draft in Corey Brewer, who should help fill a gaping hole at the 2guard (well that's IF they can get coach Jerry Sloan to trust a rookie). And I haven't even mentioned the NBA's best defender, SF Andre Kirilenko, or underrated C Memet Okur. So what's holding the Jazz back? Let me put it this way: they make the WNBA look athletic, and in a conference that's getting faster and will be running more than ever, that's a problem. There's nothing wrong with slow, methodical, fundamental basketball (other than being painful to watch), and should get the Jazz at least back to .500, but they just don't have enough fire power to run and gun in the wild West this year.