Monday, August 20, 2007

Jeremy: Johan Santana

I've been mulling over this Johan Santana issue for the last week or so, and it's clear that the Twins need to sign him. It's clear that the Twins can't be successful right now, or in the very near future, without Johan. But I can't help but wonder, can they be successful right now, or in the near future, WITH Johan?
The question, as always in baseball, comes down to how much the owner is willing to spend. And really, until this issue becomes clearer for the Twins, I can't form an opinion.
Look, if the Twins are going to maintain the current company line on the payroll and only increase the payroll by 10% or so each year, and if Jeff is right that $20 million is the floor for Johan, then you are talking about a pitcher taking up AT LEAST 25% of your payroll. If that is the case, I personally believe that signing Johan is short-term franchise suicide.
I mean, look at the Wolves with Garnett. Obviously a different situation because of the actual salary cap, but the Wolves were strapped with Garnett and had very little options as far as signing talent. And while I think that signing Johan is more important than signing Torii Hunter, I do NOT believe that signing Johan is more important than signing Morneau, Mauer, Cuddy, etc, etc, etc. My point is, if Johan's contract is going to cripple you at 25% of your total payroll, and it causes you to lose most of your quality everyday talent, I just don't think it's worth it.
Now, having said that, if the Twins are only going to increase the payroll a small amount each year as they look forward to a new stadium, they aren't going to be able to compete at this level much longer anyway, in which case, Johan probably won't want to play here.
Unlike Jeff, I am personally of the opinion that Twins fans should absolutely EXPECT a payroll of $100 million when the new stadium opens, and personally if they are committed to winning, they should probably be pushing $110 million.
Here's my thinking: Say they are only increasing the payroll by about 10% each year (and that is a number that I pulled out of the air, so I might be way off), then they are going to be paying out almost $90 million ($89.5 million) in 2009 when the new stadium opens anyway. Pushing that number up another up another 20% would bring them to $108 million and they would easily recover this in increased revenue from stadium suites and concessions, both of which they will now be getting a much larger chunk of. It's a good investment on and off the field to make this commitment to young talent and the fans for the long term.
Carl Pohlad and Sid Hartman would have you believe that the Twins would be nowhere without the Pohlad family. I disagree. I think the Twins would be nowhere without Terry Ryan, Tom Kelly and Ron Gardenhire.

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