So Long Johan

Johan Santana is unofficially officially a New York Met. Pending a long-term contract agreement between Santana
and the Mets, he'll be shipped to Queens in exchange for four prospects you've probably never heard of.

I can't believe this is what the best player in baseball is worth. Carlos Gomez, a centerfielder, is an okay prospect who should be a pretty good major league regular. His absolute upside would be an all-star but that's not likely. One pitcher has high upside but is a long ways away, and the other two pitchers grade out as middle-to-back of the rotation starters. Ladies and gentlemen, this is what Johan Santana is worth in 2008.

(Here's a great breakdown of the four prospects and the deal overall from ESPN scout Keith Law. And yes you don't need Insider to read this one)

Wow.

Let's look at the factors that went into new GM Bill Smith essentially getting fleeced by Mets GM Omar Minaya:

1) Johan was going to test the free agent market, and according to people like the Strib's Jim Souhan, he didn't want to stay in Minnesota.

From Souhan's column:
Fact: Santana wanted out. I've been told by people who know him that he longs to pitch in New York, for more money, a large Latin American community and a team he feels is determined to win a World Series in the near future.

The Twins made a solid, four year $80 million offer, which he turned down. I love to bash Carl Pohlad for being cheap, but that wasn't the problem here. $20 million a year would be more than any other pitcher was making. It's more than a fair offer. For a mid-market team, this is a helluva offer. As Souhan points out, they gave big money to Justin Morneau (they overpaid but I love that they're willing to hang onto their good players. He'll be a bargain by the time that contract's up) and Michael Cuddyer. Money's not really an issue: Santana wanting to play in Minnesota is. I heard Dan Barreiro's podcast today, and he doesn't believe they worked hard enough to resign him. Really? $20 million a year isn't enough? If Johan doesn't want to play in Minnesota, what else can you do?

2) Well you can do one of three things: trade him now, trade him at the deadline in July, or let him play out his contract, let him walk, and pick up two #1 picks. As I've said before, the Twins are building to be contenders in 2010 when the new park opens. If they let Johan walk and pick up the two #1's, that would be the best overall VALUE, but it would push their idea of contention further back because the chances of kids drafted in 2009 being ready in 2010 are pretty slim. So it looks like Smith decided waiting wasn't an option.

3) So then you look to trade him. When making a trade, obviously you want as many teams bidding as possible. The problem for the Twins was there just weren't that many teams interested. The two LA teams, who had the best farm systems of the Big Boys, were out almost from the beginning. While any team would be better with Santana in its rotation, he was not a big need for the LA clubs because they already had good starting pitchers. What's more, the Angels had a huge hole in their lineup they needed to fill, and the Dodgers are one of the best teams in the mediocre-at-best National League, so their need for Santana wasn't great. Basically everybody in the National League but the Mets and Cubs (who just don't have the prospects) were out of the bidding because they didn't need to sacrifice so much in trade in such a watered-down league. In the American League, you're then left with the Yankees and Red Sox, White Sox, Detroit, and Seattle. The White Sox didn't have the perceived pieces, Detroit made their move in getting Miggy Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and Johan said he didn't want to play in Seattle. Which brings us to...

4) the EVIL no trade clause- why on God's green earth do teams give these out? Why? All it does is hurt your franchise. Look no further than the rumors going 'round about Baltimore and Seattle making a deal for Erik Bedard (the second best lefthander on the planet). Baltimore, IF Orioles owner Peter Angelos doesn't screw this up again (last year he kiboshed a deal that would have sent Miguel Tejada to the Angels for a boatload of stud prospects), would be getting CF Adam Jones, who's one of the top 10 prospects in baseball, and three pitchers who grade out about as well as the three the Twins are getting. Why isn't this offer available to the Twins? Because Johan doesn't want to play in Seattle. No trade clauses are ridiculous because it limits your trading options. While I'm not generally pro-owners and pro-billionaires, it makes zero sense to give players this much control over where they're going, because it only helps the player, and doesn't help the teams and therefore the fans. Twins fans are going to have to watch a worse team, both short and long term, because Santana limited their options.

5) So the Twins are essentially only looking at three teams- the Sox, Yanks, and Mets. The Mets had the lesser prospects of the three, but of course it would get Santana out of the American League (I've never understood this. Wouldn't getting the best deal trump getting him out of your league?). Boston didn't really need him, but they didn't want the Yankees to get him. And the Yankees? DYING for Johan. Their rotation is young and inexperienced after Chien Mien-Wang. But because they saw there were only two other teams involved, they saw zero point in giving up their best players because they wouldn't have to. Why give up Joba Chamberlain if your competitors can't come close to that? The Red Sox have some excellent prospects, but because their need for Johan wasn't great, they weren't offering their best guys either.

Now at no time was I in Bill Smith's office when he was negotiating these deals, so I can't tell you for sure that all of the above happened, but logic and the rumor-mongering on the internet says we're pretty close. Smith had no shot at keeping Santana, letting him walk for the two #1 picks next year would stunt the team's overall development to build for 2010, and he wasn't getting any great offers. So what's a guy to do?

Personally, I would have started the season with Johan and looked to deal him again at the trade deadline, hoping/assuming the market would get bigger and better. If not you take the best value (the two #1's) and live with a longer development time. As it is, Smith did not do this. He could have faced pressure from upstairs to move Santana now, and perhaps was told to get him out of the American League. As it is, I don't like this trade for the Twins, but what's done is done. This is still a franchise with excellent young talent that is under team control for a considerable time. If Francisco Liriano's elbow is indeed healthy, he'll anchor a solid rotation. The bullpen will be excellent (although how long with Joe Nathan be around now?), and they have some great pieces in Mauer, Morneausy, Delmon Young, and Cuddy. Whether they kept Santana this year or not, their chances of winning the division were slim at best, so you can't cry over that. Whether or not Bill Smith made the right deal, well, I guess we'll find out, and hope these kids turn out better than baseball talent experts think they will.