TJack Out, Frerotte In- Start Printing those Championship T-Shirts!!

Gus Frerotte has replaced Tavaris Jackson as the starting QB for the Minnesota Vikings. After an 0-2 start, it looks like we've found the scape goat for why coach Brad Childress' "kick ass" offense hasn't kicked any ass this season (well through the air. On the ground Adrian Peterson has been a force of nature.) All aboard the bandwagon Vikes fans, because it's next stop Super Bowl! The Super Bowl parade will be held on Washington Avenue, then will take a left down the newly renamed "Gus Frerotte Way". After that we'll go streaking up through the quad and to the gymnasium.

In an email today to a group of extraordinary gentlemen, my buddy Kyle summed up the QB switch better than I could have:

"I can't say I'll get all that much more optimistic until our 'kick @ss offense' starts opening things up a bit... As bad as Jackson's interception looked against Green Bay, the reality is he didn't manage the game all that poorly, and you can't point to any other throws that were horrible... The only receiver who ever gets separation is Sidney Rice (Bernard Berrian who???) but we never throw downfield (besides go routes) so it doesn't make any difference anyway... This is just a guess, but I'm thinking this change will simply end up accentuating that the system is the problem... Don't get me wrong, T-Jack is no Johnny Unitas, but he's certainly not Spregeon Wynn either."

Yup I couldn't agree more. Has Jackson been good? Absolutely not. It's a small sample size, but in his first two games his QB rating of 64.8 is 26th in the NFL (you know who's 32nd? Carson Palmer. Yikes), and his yardage, TD's and yards per attempt are all in the same range. If you want to get all fancy and technical and "mathy" up in this piece, the boys at footballoutsiders have two stats that, IF (and it's a big if) I can get my head around it and explain it right, really tell the story of how ineffective Jackson, and perhaps the offense, has been.

DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) gives the value of the quarterback's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. TJack's DYAR rating is a -41, which means he's been 41 yards worse than a replacement level QB (A replacement level QB would be about the equivalent of Gus Frerotte. Give or take). He ranked 26th in the league.

Another very cools statistic is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (explained really well here What's cool about this stat is it's not just looking at total yards gained, it's the VALUE of quality of those yards. Like yards gained that go for a touchdown, or gain a first down, get more emphasis than those that don't. Brad Johnson in Chilly's "KAO" was infamous for throwing for 4 yards on a 3rd and 7. Sure, he got the completion and some yards out of it, which helped his QB rating and numbers, BUT HE DIDN"T GET THE FREAKING FIRST DOWN!!!!!! Anyway, this stat helps rate which players get the most VALUE PER PLAY. Pretty freaking cool). So TJack's DVOA is -20.9 (meaning he does not add much value to any play he's involved in. Which could be a problem for a quarterback). He also ranked- you guessed it- 26th in the NFL in this stat.

So three different metrics are telling us Tavaris Jackson is at best the 26th best quarterback in the league, and for a team with Super Bowl aspirations this is already 0-2, that's just not good enough. Yet I've wondered out loud, as Kyle says there, whether the problems this season and last were all Jackson, or if the scheme was to blame too. Childress' kick @ss offense has been one of the lowest rated passing offenses whether it was Jackson or Brad Johnson running the show. Chilly's offense made more throws in the 10 yards and less range than anybody else, and therefore much fewer down field. Hey sure you want to minimize risks, but not taking any is as foolish as taking too many, and Chilly just refuses to open things up.

So is Frerotte the answer? Of course not. Like Kyle, I believe Frerotte will now be asked to make the same 5 yard throws on obvious passing downs that Jackson was, and while his results may be a little better because of his veteran grittiness and experience, the offense isn't going to take off until the man with the mustache starts opening things up.

This QB change is a good thing regardless for Vikings fans: if Frerotte really does make a difference, then the playoffs become a possibility. If he doesn't, and nothing changes, then Childress is canned. I've heard rumors that folks are worried Ziggy may have a Glen Taylor-like attachment to Childress. Not a chance. There's no way an NFL head coach misses the playoffs for 3 straight years and keeps his job. Zero. None. So don't worry about that. If the QB change works, then great but if it doesn't then we get somebody else with some more open philosophies in here next year. And we'll know whether the lack of a passing game in Minnesota has been all Tavaris Jackson's fault, or if Childress should shoulder the blame.


http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikings/28584194.html?elr=KArksi8cyaiU9PmP:QiUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiU