The Miller/Love for Mayo Trade

Before I can say "I told you so" I guess I should first probably tell you. I swore that I had weighed in over the summer on the Timberwolves trade with Memphis. The Wolves dealt rookie OJ Mayo and the horrible contracts of Marko Jaric (3 years and $21 million) and Greg Buckner (3 years and $12 million), and the expiring contract of Antoine Walker (technically has 3 years and almost $40 million left but there's a team option after this year). They got back rookie Kevin Love, sharpshooter Mike Miller (2 years for 18.75 million), the awful contract of Brian Cardinal (2 years-$13 million. For Brian Cardinal. Seriously) and the expiring contract of Jason Collins ($6.2 mill this season. Not to be confused with his twin brother Jarron. By the way, what's up with Stanford and twin semi-useless tall brothers? First it was the Collins twins, then Jessica and Stacy Lopez. Does Stanford give discounts if you're tall and twins and also productive pro players with marginal to no NBA value?).

Let's just get the cap ramifications out of the way first. Dumping two awful three year contracts (almost $12 million a year for the next three years) for two years of Brian Cardinal makes sense. Instead of being at the cap through 2011, the Wolves will be at about $46 million (close to $10 mill under) next summer, and puts go WAY under (roughly $20 million in salary- giving them roughly $35 million to spend) for what should be the free agent bonanza of 2010. Of course, they're going to need all of that cap room because you won't just have to overpay, you'll have to REALLY overpay to get players to sign as free agents in Minnesota.

Ok, so financially this makes a lot of sense, but that's only one part of this. Now, a lot of folks are going to judge this deal based on Love vs. Mayo, which is unfair because this deal was not Love for Mayo straight up, but instead Love, Mike Miller and getting out of salary cap purgatory a year early for OJ Mayo. I'm also going to remind you we cannot judge what kind of players Mayo and Love will be for about three seasons. I know Mayo is playing lights out right now (scoring 31 and 33 his past two outings), and so far looks every bit the all-star that some projected him to be. But we're only 8 games into the season, which is a REALLY small sample size. We also need to remember that young bigs in this league take at least three years to develop. Look no further than the Wolves own Al Jefferson, who took 3-4 years to develop into the All-star post he is today.

Judgements made too hastily on deals can look foolish as time goes on. The best example is the Mark Prior vs Joe Mauer debate. I was strongly in the "draft Mark Prior" camp, and for the first few years Prior took the league by storm, looking like the next Roger Clemens, which made the Twins look bad for taking Mauer. Now? Prior's career has been completely derailed by injuries while Mauer just won his second batting title (which is two more than any other catcher in history), and could enter into the "best catcher of all-time" talk before all is said and done. I was wrong on that one and the Twins were right.

So while we can't judge how well this trade works, we can look at where the Wolves are at philosophically. A few weeks ago Wolves asst GM Fred "The Mayor" Hoiberg was on KFAN with Paul Allen (one of the things I enjoy about PA is that because he's able to ask people difficult questions or address difficult topics honestly and openly because he keeps things positive). PA asked Hoiberg about the Mayo deal and why it was made, and Hoiberg's response was something to the effect that while McHale loved Love, they didn't consider dealing OJ Mayo until the Grizzlies included Mike Miller. That right there tells me the Wolves ideals and philosophy for rebuilding the franchise is badly flawed. Whether the plan was to trade for Miller and keep him or to deal him for more picks/young players/cap space, this is not a trade Minnesota should have made.

On a championship team, Mike Miller is a third or fourth option. Great outside shooter (career 41% 3 point) and an excellent defensive rebounder for a 2 guard, but he's not a go-to guy, and he's not a good defender. At all. Having Miller on the Timberwolves would be like putting some phat 18" rims on my Chevy Cavalier. It might enhance the value, but only slightly, and it's still a Cavalier. It's the same thing with the Wolves. This is a 30 win team- at best this year, and I can't see them being much better next year. Miller has two years left on his deal, and they'd have to be extremely fortunate to be even a playoff contender before he's a free agent.

Sure Miller is a nice piece to have, but he's not going to put the Wolves over the hump into a championship contender, or even a playoff contender. The problem here (or one of them) is that McHale and Hoiberg and company believe this should be a contender, and that Miller IS that missing piece. McHale said around the draft he thought the Wolves would win 40 games this year. Um, really? How's that?

Look at the core of this team (pre Mayo trade) and tell me how they're a playoff team. Here's what we know:
Al Jefferson is an all-star- on offense. He is atrocious defensively, and thus far in his career has shown zero ability or desire to play D. If he's going to be your franchise cornerstone (and Glen Taylor locking him up to a long-term extension before the season tells me he is), you MUST compliment him with a Samuel Dalembert-type center or post player that can defend the paint. What you should absolutely positively not do is team him with an equally bad defensive player, no matter how much you think they’ll compliment each other offensively. More on this in a minute.
Ryan Gomes- probably your best all-around player, but on a good team, he'd be a 6th man.
Craig Smith- your most consistent post player other than Al, and on a good team, he'd be 9th or 10th in the rotation.
Bassy Telfair- a backup point guard- on this team, or any other. If he's your starter, you're in trouble.
Corey Brewer- excellent perimeter defender and a real high flyer, but can't dribble or shoot.
The jury remains out on Randy Foye and Rashad McCants, and this is a pivotal year for both to prove they deserve new contracts when their rookie deals expire soon.

Call me crazy, but even with breakout seasons from Foye and McCants this is not a playoff team with the additions of Mike Miller and Kevin Love. Feel free to disagree with me, but please some kind of argument that revolves around facts or stats instead of just “well we feel like this could work.” ESPN.com basketball stats guru John Hollinger is one of my favorite basketball scribes, and I love that he uses progressive stats and explanations that make him the Bill James of basketball stats. While I usually agree with Professor Hollinger, I did not when it came to the Wolves. Hollinger argued that preseason results in the NBA DO matter (the Wolves had one of the league’s best records in the pre-season), and that this was a good indicator of what the Wolves could do. He believed that adding an excellent outside shooter in Miller and a good mid-range shooter in Love would make the Wolves a formidable offensive unit that could run and gun their way to be a borderline playoff team.

The problem with this thinking is that if the aim there is to be a run-and-gun team like Phoenix was pre-Shaq or Golden State was a few years ago, the Wolves don’t have anywhere near the firepower of those teams, or even an adequate defense. I just don’t think enough people understand how bad defensively the Jefferson/Love combo is defensively and how difficult that would be to overcome. If a decent post player (and last I checked there’s a few of those in the West) will come in and score pretty much at will against the T-Pups, that means less defensive boards and less chances for outlets and fast-breaks. If your whole idea is to run-and-gun, isn’t that kind of an issue? So whether you think the Wolves were, or were not, contenders will Mike Miller, I’m not sure how Kevin Love made any sense as the guy to team with Jefferson.

IF you thought this made the Wolves contenders, it was a bad trade. And if you believe they could grab Miller and deal him for picks or prospects, I have a hard time seeing how that could be more valuable than what OJ Mayo could have been. Mayo looked to be a supreme talent at off-guard, and there was word circulating around the draft he could be better than Michael Beasley. Wolves fans seemed pumped on draft night when he fell in their lap, and yet McHale and Co. still believed a better idea was to deal a player who people would actually pay to see.

It’s also illogical to argue that “Minnesota shouldn’t take Mayo because they have too many combo guards already.” This would only be true if the Wolves had too many GOOD combo guards. As mentioned, the two guards they had, like Foye, McCants, and Brewer, are still unproven at best. In the NBA one player can make more of a difference than any other professional sport, so why on earth would you give up the best player, and potential all-star, in a deal for a good 4th or 5th wheel, cap space, and rookie post player who at best could be a 6’9 Brad Miller and who doesn’t compliment your best player defensively at all? Personally, I roll the dice with Mayo, and if Foye and McCants prove they can play, you figure out playing time or trades when it happens. The Wolves went another direction, and so far it doesn’t look good. I hope, like with the Prior/Mauer debate, I’m wrong, but I have a feeling I’m going to be hoping I’m wrong on a lot of moves the Wolves will make in order for them to be successful.