Jeff: Morrison Won't Be Another Wally

If we didn't live in a politically correct world, I could compare Adam Morrison to the NBA player I think he'll most resemble: Glenn "Big Dog" Robinson. But since we apparently aren't allowed to compare white guys to black guys, or vice versa, there's always two names that come up when people want to compare Morrison: Larry Bird or Wally Szczerbiak. Since the only comparison you can really make between Bird and "Ammo" is their staches, I guess we're left with Wally, but other than their size (both 6'8), lack of foot speed, and skin color, they're different players. I'd take Morrison over Szczerbiak right now for any basketball format you're looking for. But I'll do the comparison because Wally's been a decent player, so if I think Morrison's going to be better, then that should say something.

Let's look at Morrison's weaknesses first, and there's none bigger than on defense. People harp about Morrison's inability (and partially his unwillingness) to play defense, and the effect it'll have. Look, he's a terrible defender, and has a chance to be nothing better than not-downright-awful, but Szczerbiak's been in the same boat for his 7 years in the league (honestly who can he guard?), and yet he's been a decent player and will continue to play for as long as he can shoot. Does being a bad defender hurt you in the league? Certainly, but with the new stringent rules on hand-checking on the perimeter, offense is (finally!) be emphasized over defense, so the great and good defenders are coming back to the pack. Long story short being a bad defender is not as big a liability as it used to be, especially if you're in a system that stresses running and gunning (i.e. teams not in the Eastern Conference). For an example of how bad defensive players can still serve a purpose, look no further than the 2-time defending MVP (Nash is far more valuable than either guy, yes, but he's not a better defender than either of them).

Morrison is an ok rebounder for his size (averaged over 5 a game in 3 years with the Zags). Wally has averaged only 4.4 boards in his career (with 5.5 in 2000-'01 by far his highest) but he did average 6.3 in his 4 years in college (including 8.5 his senior year), so I'd say Morrison would be lucky to get close to 4 boards a night in the L. Neither guy are great passers. Morrison's assist-turnover ratio was barely over 1 for his career, and although Wally's is 1.67 in the NBA, he actually averaged more turnovers than assist in college.

The big difference with these two is scoring, and it's all about mentality. Wally's a shooter; Morrison's a scorer, and anybody who knows basketball knows that's a BIG difference! Szczerbiak's shooting in his 7 full seasons (15.6 pts, .499 FG%, .859 FT%, .403 3pt%) have been impressive-- and they'd better be considering that's all he does well. Give him a catch-and-shoot open look and Wally's reliable. Force him to make decisions, and he's basically screwed. Look no further than his playoff numbers in 5 trips to the postseason to prove it. Everything but his FG % (.447) and FT % (.877) drop dramatically-- well except his turnovers, which skyrocket. In 29 playoff games, Wally has only 22 assists and a mind-boggling 63 turnovers!!! That's an assist-turnover ratio of only .349, or an easier way to say it is he averages almost 3 turnovers (2.86 to be exact) for every assist. That's beyond awful. When he's pressured he's a turnover waiting to happen, and yet the man has a huge contract(as much as I'd like to blame Wolves VP Kevin McHale for that one, if he didn't pay Wally that, someone else would have. For example see Dunleavy, Mike) and a secure place in the league.

Despite all these deficiancies, Wally's been an all-star once, and a serviceable player. So if Morrison's better at handling pressure and creating his own shot, which he's proven to be in college, then wouldn't it make sense that Morrison should have a better career, which means a very good pro? Morrison is a scorer, and has the killer instinct that Wally lacks. Club owner Tino from Anchorman has a saying in his country about guys like Morrison: "the coyote of the desert likes to eat the heart of the young and the blood drips down to his children for breakfast, lunch and dinner and only the ribs will be broken."

Sure maybe his intensity gets out of hand (banging his head with the ball at the end of the Zag's first round win or his crying after the loss to UCLA), but I'd rather take that knowing he's giving 168% for every game than a lot of these guys that loaf through most of their games. Morrison's offensive game is about as ugly to look at as his stache, but what he lacks in style he more than makes up for in substance. Don't be worried about his lack of footspeed or athleticism, it's not going to be a big deal. He'll never fly by people and make spectacular drives like DWade, Kobe or Lebron, but he will consistently get his shot off and get to the line. He's got a very high release on his jumper making it difficult to block, and his herky-jerky drives and impossible shot angles and arm slots make him that much tougher to defend. He's also great at drawing fouls. In his 4 year college career, Wally attempted 372 free throws. Morrison shot 311 just THIS YEAR!! He's crafty, tough and makes you pay for fouling him. And again, with defenders no longer allowed to hand-check, with the threat of his jumper he's going to be able to get by people.

He's not going to be a 30-point-a-night guy, but it's very reasonable to expect 20-a-night, and if he gets on the right team, I think he can do it from the get-go. Does Morrison have flaws? Certainly, but I think his scoring and his toughness (both mentally and physically) will make him a good scorer and borderline all-star (and perhaps better) for years to come. He'll be a solid draft pick and will contribute from day 1, and depending on the system he gets into he could turn into a 20-25 points-a-night guy. You know, like Glenn Robinson used to be. Whoops, there I go again comparing a white guy to a black guy. My apologies to whomever I offended.

And actually, thanks to www.basketballreference.com, I have found a white guy we can compare Morrison to. Let's hop in the way-back machine and go with Kelly Tripucka who had a 10 year career averaging 17.2 pts, and almost 4 boards a game as a gunner at small-forward. Happy now? Good. Hopefully this can prove to the doubters that you'll be seeing plenty of Morrison and his dirty stache for years to come.