Jeff: The Time to Deal KG Is Now

Before I take the plunge into the darkness of "we need to trade KG" territory, let me first say congrats to the new Mr. and Mrs. Jer.

Onto the business at hand. Jer is the most passionate Minnesota sports fan that I know, and is just as passionate about Kevin Garnett. The fact Jer stated in his post just below this one that although it would kill him to see KG go, that it'd be good for Kev because he's not going to win a ring here, well, he's right. KG's not winning a ring here. I thought Strib columnist Jim Souhan put it best last week, saying

"What is wrong with the Wolves, Garnett can't fix alone, and that's his only option if he stays."

I couldn't have said it any simpler. Garnett is in a no-win situation because the roster is essentiall locked for his remaining three years on his contract. Thanks to the moves made by GM Kevin McHale, the Wolves are capped out for the remainder of Garnett's tenure in Minnesota, meaning not only can they not add any viable players via free agency, but they can't trade for any either because the guys that ARE eating up salary (i.e Mark Blount, Marko Jaric and Troy Hudson) are virtually untradeable at this point. So what you're stuck with is a team that at its best is good enough for the 7th or 8th playoff spot (meaning you get whipped in the first round) or at worst the 7-14th worst lottery team (and not bad enough to get into the top 5 where you've got a decent chance at landing a high pick).

So basically the Wolves you saw last year are the Wolves you'll see through 2008-- and that's IF Garnett doesn't force a trade before then, which he almost certainly would. Garnett deserves a shot at at title, and there is not only the perfect destination out there for him right now, but it's a place that can also give the Wolves some great building pieces back. Not only that, but a trade for Garnett now is going to net you more than it would say in February before the deadline when everyone knows you HAVE to trade him.

Ladies and gentlemen, the next destination for Kevin Garnett should be: the Chicago Bulls.

Bloggers and fans and even the media often make a common error when suggesting trades: they only look at one side. People like to think you can combine a few of your fringe players together in a big bundle and bring back an all-star. Not going to happen, even with Isiah Thomas still employed in New York (at least until Christmas). Chicago has been a rumored destination for KG for awhile because he spent his senior year of high school there, AND the Bulls have some nice young players, as well as the cap room to absorb KG's mammoth contract without Minnesota having to take back a bad contract to match salaries. The rumors continue to swirl because it makes so much sense for both sides.

First there's Chicago. GM John Paxson has rebuilt the Bulls beautifully with young players and plenty of cap space, but the signing of Ben Wallace earlier this week for a fat salary actually ENHANCES the Wolves bargaining position. With Garnett, plus Wallace as the inside defender and rebounder every team would love, along with uberpoint guard Kirk Heinrich and a bevy of talented wing players, the Bulls are the new favorites to represent the East in the Finals. And although I don't think the BUlls would be better than Phoenix, Dallas or San Antonio, as the Heat showed this past year and the Pistons showed 3 years ago, if you're good enough to get there, even if you're not favored on paper, you can be good enough to win it. Garnett's 31, Wallace is 30, and together you've got a 4 year window for a championship run. Without Garnett the Bulls still have a gaping hole at the 4 spot, and no inside scorer. They're improved, but probably only the 4th best team in the East. And Paxson knows this. The Ben Wallace signing turned Garnett from a luxury to a necessity for the Bulls. No one else makes as much sense for them as he would, and nobody would work as well as he would. He's the guy they now HAVE to have to make the Wallace signing a good move.

For the Wolves? It's the only trade partner that makes sense, as long as you get one thing: Chicago's 1st round pick for the upcoming 2007 draft- and along with it, the right to swap that pick with the Knicks (which you're 99.99999999% guaranteed to do because of how awful the Knicks will be this coming season). Paxson has been very, very, VERY reluctant to include this pick in any deals for anybody. Why? If you haven't heard, the 2007 draft is being lauded by people in the basketball community as anything from the best draft in years to the best in decades. There are 5 bonafide potential superstars expected to declare, the best of the bunch being Ohio State-bound center Greg Oden. Oden has been touted since he was a high school freshman as the best big man since Tim Duncan or David Robinson. After he destroys the Big 10 next year, you'll see that those comparisons are accurate. The other elite prospects aren't too shabby either and would go a long way towards hitting the fast-forward button on rebuilding for whatever team is lucky enough to have a pick in the top 5. And here's the thing: if the Wolves demand that Chicago/Knicks pick be included for Garnett, Minnesota has a very real chance of having not one but TWO top 5 picks next year. That's a helluva way to start the post-KG era in Minnesota.

I did some research on this (thanks to realgm.com for the info) and it looks like McHale wasn't quite as dumb as I'd feared. Although his trade of Sam Cassell AND a conditional #1 pick for Marko Jaric is still one of the worst deals of the decade so far, the Clippers are by no means guaranteed Minnesota's pick for 2007. The pick is top 10 protected through 2011, so if you dealt Garnett, the WOlves would be a very bad team, all but assuring them of keeping their pick. So there's plus what should be the pick from an also very bad Knicks team means the Wolves now have 2 chances at landing Oden in the lottery, or at worst, two picks in the top 6 or 7 of a great draft.

So that pick HAS to be included. Again, Paxson will not want to part with this for the reasons mentioned above, but it just doesn't make sense for Minnesota to trade KG if this pick isn't included. Paxson knows how valuable the pick is, but he also knows the time is now to get KG to make a run for the title, and his opportunity may not be as good if he waits.

IF the pick is included, it's reasonable for the Wolves to get two more guys back. I know a draft pick and two non-allstar players for a guy like Garnett doesn't sound like much for Wolves fans, but hear me out. I've already explained what getting that pick will do, and adding two more from the Bulls young core would be a steal. One of those guys NEEDS to be Tyrus Thomas, the Bulls lottery pick from this past draft. He's long, athletic, and most importantly, the kid works his ass off. The biggest gamble teams have to take on these kids now is whether they're going to be willing to work or not. With most of them you never can tell, but Thomas has been a workout warrior in his two years at LSU, and from everything I've read, that should continue. He's about as safe a bet to be an allstar down the line as anyone selected in the 2006 draft, and if the Chicago had Wallace AND Garnett he wouldn't play much anyways, so he's expendable.

Your third guy is one of the following three: combo guard Ben Gordon, swingman Luol Deng, or swingman J.R. Smith. Gordon was a hot rumor for awhile, and although I really like him, the Wolves drafting combo guard Randy Foye eliviates the need to get BenGo. As good as these two could be, having two guards 6'4 or under in the backcourt would cause you problems defensively. Deng is a Dukie that came out a year or two too early, but is a great athlete, good defender, smart player, and a great kid to boot. He's expendable for Chicago because of how well Andres Nocionni played in the past playoffs. Still, the guy I'd target would be Smith, the 6'6 super athletic wingman who doesn't turn 21 until September. The Bulls just picked him up from the Hornets, as he got into Coach Byron Scott's doghouse and couldn't get out. Still the kid has oodles of potential, and has more of that magical "upside" than the other two. Better still, the kid is getting paid next to nothing, so if he doesn't pan out in his one-year tryout or cops more of that bad attitude, he's still very tradeable because there'll ALWAYS be somebody willing to take a chance on a then 22-year old athletic swingman with a cheap contract.

2006 would be a tough year. Ok, ok, 2006 for the Wolves would be an out and out Gong Show. But if you're not going to make the playoffs WITH Garnett, it'd be worth it to put yourself in this situation without him to be completely unwatchable for 2006-- and then have the best young team in basketball in 2007 and beyond. For the start of 2007 you'd have two high lottery picks who'd be able to make an immediate impact, plus Ty Thomas and Foye with a year under their belt, JR Smith, AND a healthy Rashad McCants. That's 6 guys for 5 spots. Give them 2007 to battle it out, and then package one or two with your remaining gawd-awful contracts for cap relief and role players to fill out your roster. Voila!! In less than 2 years you go from borderline playoff contender with no hope, to burgeoning playoff contender with the brightest future in the league!

You never want to have to deal a player the caliber of Garnett, but if you have to, this is the best you're going to find at turning things around in a hurry. As Jer said, Garnett deserves a shot to win a title, and he'd get it right now in Chicago. The Wolves deserve a new guy running the team, but since they can't get that, a white hot young nucleaus of talent to replace The Franchise is as good as they can ask for.