An AFC Redux and the Shocking Super Sleeper

Well that didn’t go very well. After coming up with a trendy new formula for picking NFL playoff teams, I couldn’t even stick to it. Did you notice that in picking playoffs teams for the AFC, instead of picking three or four of the five teams that made it last year, I picked ALL FIVE? Whoopsy daisy! But seriously, look at those teams again and tell me which one is getting left out: Pittsburgh is clearly the class of the AFC North, and if the Colts don’t win the South, the two best challengers are the Jaguars and Titans- both of whom also made the playoffs last year. I’ve been stewing about this for the past week, and I’ve come to the following conclusion: I’m taking a mulligan on my AFC picks.

That’s right, we’re pretending my post last week never happened- well part of it anyway. New England and Pittsburgh still win their divisions. The changes are that the Colts win the South…and the Chargers don’t make the playoffs. You heard me. Because you know what I forgot about the Chargers? Their head coach is Norv Freaking Turner. Norv Turner. He of the 69-87-1 career record, and who before last season had coached in a grand total of 2 playoff games. You could say the Charge made the AFC Championship game last year in spite of Norv, the man who is still known mostly for choking away big games and who in big moments looks like he's about to pee his pants.

Yep, Norv is coaching the San Diego Chargers in 2008, and he’s one of five reasons I’m changing my mind about the Bolts. The others are that I do not believe in Phil Rivers as a franchise quarterback. Like, at all. The Chargers chose the wrong quarterback when they let Drew Brees walk and it will be proven this season. Also, Chris Chambers is supposed to be the go-to guy. Really? The same guy who the past two seasons hasn’t cracked 1000 yards receiving or had more than 4 TD’s? That Chris Chambers? He’s now three seasons removed from his monster 2005 campaign when he had 82 catches for 1118 yards and 11 TD’s. Since 2002 that’s the only year he’s cracked 1000 yards or had more than 69 catches, and only the second time he had double-digit TD’s. I don’t buy him as a #1, and I’m not much sold on Vincent Jackson either. Reason number four is that the vaunted Charger defense was actually a middle of the pack defense in yards allowed (14th), and now Shawn Merriman is having his sore knee checked out. Never a good sign.

Finally, in researching for the Shocking Super Sleeper, I’ve come to the conclusion that the AFC West will be a lot better than last year. So therefore, the Chargers aren’t making the playoffs in 2008. You heard it here first.

The other team that’s dropping out from my previous picks is Jacksonville. Like Norv Turner coaching San Diego, I somehow overlooked the fact that right now Jacksonville is starting Troy Williamson at wide receiver. No seriously, they are. The Jags are a trendy Super Bowl sleeper with Troy Williamson as a starting receiver? Call me skeptical. He’s in that spot because Reggie Williams and Jerry Porter are recovering from injury, and Matt Jones spent his offseason getting arrested for cocaine possession. I'm pretty sure that's not in the "How to Spot a Super Bowl Sleeper" Handbook. Even if Williams and Porter come back healthy, Williams hasn’t yet put together a consistent season (yes he scored 10 TDs last year, but had just 38 catches for 629 yards) and Porter’s last good year was 2005, and by "good" I mean 942 yards and 5 TD’s. So there’s your receiving core for 2008.

On top of that, the surprisingly durable Fred Taylor (he’s played in at least 14 games in five of the past six years) is 32 years old, which is when running backs hit a serious drop off. While every team has questions, these will impact the Jags enough that they miss the playoffs. I’m not saying they’ll be terrible, but it’s enough in what will be the toughest division in the league.

So who’s taking the final three playoff spots? I’ll give you two today: Denver wins the West (really going out on a limb there, I know), and the Houston Texans take one of the wild card spots. I’m serious, Houston (who had the quietest 8-8 season in memory last year) takes that next step.

The final spot goes to the 2008 Shocking Super Sleeper. As documented last year by both Bill Simmons (his archived stuff is Insider so no point linking to it) and SI.com’s Peter King (his archives don’t even go back one year, so I can’t link to his preview from last year either), every season since 2003 we’ve seen at least one team that comes from absolutely nowhere to either make the playoffs or at the very least shock the league and challenge for a playoff spot.

Upon further review there’s been TWO teams every year since 2005 that no one saw coming (Atlanta in 2004 and Dallas in 2003 fit all of the requirements except for the “no one saw them coming” category. With Michael Vick in the ATL and Dallas being America’s Team, it was certifiably impossible for either of those teams to fly under the radar). These are teams who the season before had no more than five wins, and yet improved by at least five wins the next season. And again, to qualify for the Shocking Super Sleeper, they had to be teams that absolutely, positively nobody thought would be any good.

So how did they do it? A good question, and one that does not provide us with an easy answer. All of these teams had four things in common, only two of which are even remotely predictable: an easy schedule, and a good draft/free agent signing. The third and fourth things are a wildcard (a player that stepped up that couldn't possibly have been predicted) and a "bounce-back" or "step-up" year from a unit or just the whole damn team.

Generally (except apparently if you’re New England and San Diego this year) the NFL gives bad teams an easier schedule and good teams a harder schedule the following year. It helps to create the “competitive balance” the league craves and give as much parity as possible. Signing quality free agents and/or making shrewd draft picks needs no explanation, although surprisingly most of these teams didn't make much of a splash in free agency, and didn't make many marquee draft picks.

Where the real difference came was seeing their defense, offense, or both, make a big improvement from the season before. Maturation? Contract year? New coach? Guys finally figuring it out? Hard to say, but it happened with everybody on one side of the ball or the other.

A couple of things that WEREN'T consistent which you would think might be were a good defense and a good starting quarterback. While an improved D was a mark for most teams, there were some who had an outstanding offense and a bottom of the pack defense. And quarterbacks? Sure, a couple of teams got huge years from a QB, but others not only didn't get a great year from their quarterback, they didn't even get a decent year out of their signal caller. And yet, the team had a big year.

Here then is the list, with an explanation (or at least as best as I could figure it) for why each team what they did:
* denotes that team made playoffs

2007
Cleveland (10 wins, 4 previous season)
KEY FREE AGENTS: RB Jamal Lewis
DRAFT PICKS: T Joe Thomas (1st)
WILD CARD: QB Derek Anderson
Anderson was a 6th rd pick of the Ravens who was just trying to catch on with the Browns. Charlie Frye was the incumbent starter and Cleveland paid a lot to move back into the first round to select Notre Dame Golden Boy QB Brady Quinn. Yet after two unproductive starts for Frye, Anderson took over, the offense took off, and the Browns were relevant for the first time in years.

Tampa Bay* (9 wins, 4 previous season)
KEY FREE AGENTS: QB Jeff Garcia,
DRAFT PICKS: G Arron Sears (2nd- Started all 16 games)
WILD CARD: RB Ernest Graham
Garcia’s return to a productive starter was a surprise in itself, especially considering Tampa already had two good QB’s on the roster in Chris Simms and Jake Plummer. Florida Gator alum Ernest Graham was a late round pick in 2004 who had bounced around as a Bucs reserve. When Cadillac Williams AND Michael Pittman got hurt, Graham stepped in and led the team in rushing. Like we saw that coming.

2006
New Orleans* (10 wins, 4 prev seas.)
KEY FREE AGENTS: QB Drew Brees
DRAFT PICKS: RB Reggie Bush (1st)
WILD CARD: WR Marques Colston
Colston, a 7th rd pick out of Hofstra, was the wildest of wild cards. No football expert on earth could have predicted Colston would not only make the team, but would turn into a legitimate #1 receiver in his very first season. Brees was worth every penny as a free agent, while Bush, despite the hype, was not. And still hasn't been.

NY Jets* (10 wins, 4 prev seas.)
KEY FREE AGENTS: Pete Kendall, G
DRAFT PICKS: T D’Brickishaw Ferguson (1st), C Nick Mangold (1st), RB Leon Washington (4th)
WILD CARD: THIS team made the playoffs?
Not a great team by any stretch, and there were no real standouts on either side of the ball other than WR Laverneus Coles. The two first round picks, along with free agent Kendall, solidified the O-line, giving brittle The Chad time to find Coles and Cotchery, who had a breakout season. They also opened holes for surprise draftee Washington. The defense stepped up and got the Jets into the playoffs.

2005
Chicago* (11 wins, 5 prev seas)
KEY FREE AGENTS: none really
DRAFT PICKS: um…Kyle Orton?
WILD CARD: A team with Orton at QB could win 11 games
Like the Jets they were not good offensively, but unlike the NYJ, their defense was downright scary. They would have to be for a team who had Orton as their “best” passer- and we’re using the term best as loosely as possible (Orton had a 59.9 QB rating with 1869 yds, 9 TD’s and 13 INT’s). Thomas Jones was a beast on the ground (1335 yds and 9 TD’s) as the Bears played the control-the-clock game to perfection. The defense got career years from just about everybody, had five players named to the Pro Bowl, two of whom (LB’s Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs) were named 1st team All-Pro. Really they didn’t make any huge offseason changes and didn’t draft well (Cedric Benson was the 4th overall pick- think DeMarcus Ware or Shawn Merriman could have helped? Actually, this was not a strong draft in the top 10 at all, so it wasn’t just the Bears who blew it), but had a group that came together. You can’t even call this a fluke because with the exact same recipe (swap a horrible Orton for a horrible Rex Grossman) the Bears were even better in 2006 going 13-3.


Tampa Bay* (11 wins, 5 prev seas)
KEY FREE AGENTS:
DRAFT PICKS: RB Cadillac Williams (1st), G Dan Buenning (4th- started all 16 games),
WILD CARD: The maturation of Chris Simms
Hey it’s the Bucs again! And like the 2007 team they're just as boring as ever! Unlike the 2007 edition, there weren't any real huge surprises here. Simms had a good season (yet only started 11 games), and Cadillac Williams had a big year as a rookie, but there weren't any other big changes to the roster. The defense went from a top 10 to top 5, and WR Joey Galloway turned in a Pro Bowl season.

2004
San Diego* (12 wins, 4 prev seas)
KEY FREE AGENTS: LB Donnie Edwards (from KC)
DRAFT PICKS: QB Philip Rivers (1st), DT Igor Olshansky (2nd-started all 16) C Nick Hardwick (3rd- started 14 games), RT Shane Olivea (7th- started all 16)
WILD CARD: QB Drew Brees AND TE Antonio Gates
Maybe you've forgotten, but there was a time when Brees was not one of the NFL's best. That time was 2004. After three seasons with San Diego (the last two as a starter), Brees had led the team to just 10 total victories, had more INT's (31) than TD's (28), and hadn't posted a QB rating over 76. While not quite Ryan-Leaf bad, San Diego had so little confidence in Brees that they used their first round pick (4th overall) on quarterback Phil Rivers. Apparently Brees hated Rivers as much as I do, because he responded by finally putting up the college-like numbers that had been expected (remember he tore up the Big 10 while at Purde), piling up 3159 yards, 65.5 comp%, 27 TD's, just 7 INT's, and a career high 104.8 QB rating. Of course he had a little help, as LaDanian Tomlinson was, well, LaDanian Tomlinson (named 1st team all-pro), and an unlikely source, Gates, also exploded onto the scene, with an incredible 81 catches for 964 yards and 13 TD's. Thanks to two more draft picks the line solidified, and yet another 2004 pick, former Oregon Duck behemoth Olshansky, along with free agent signee Edwards, helped take the defense from one of the league's worst to middle of the pack.

2003
Cincinnati (8 wins, 2 prev seas)
KEY FREE AGENTS: MLB Kevin Hardy, CB Tory James
DRAFT PICKS: QB Carson Palmer (1st overall), G Eric Steinbach (2nd),
WILD CARD: RB Rudi Johnson and RB Corey Dillon
Kind of like the Brees/Rivers situation, the Bengals took Palmer #1 overall, only to watch Kitna have a career year (the Bengals were so impressed with Kitna that they benched him the very next year in favor of Palmer. In the Bengals defense, Palmer turned out to be pretty good), throwing for 3191 yds, 26 TD's and 15 INT's for a QB rating near 90. Dillon, who was coming off 6 straight seasons of at least 1100 yards rushing, got hurt early in the year and by the end of the season lost his job as he put up only 541 yards in 13 games while 3rd year back Johnson racked up 957 and 9 TD's. Hardy and James helped make the worst defense in 2002...well to be only slightly better. Oh yeah, and new head coach Marvin Lewis might have had something to do with all of this too.

So there you have it. Who will be the Shocking Super Sleeper(s) for 2008? Stay tuned.