Wednesday, September 10, 2008

College Questions

Do you have questions about some college football teams heading into the third weekend? Hey me too!

#1 USC: How much do they beat Ohio State by this weekend?
For the record, the Buckeyes were looking past Ohio U last week, and their feeble 26-16 win AT HOME against the Bobcats is not indicitive of their true talent level. They played poorly and now have to listen to the media and bloggers tell them how terrible they are all week long. So I don't doubt Ohio State will be fired up to play USC at the Mausoleum Saturday night: I just don't think it's going to matter much. USC is currently 10.5 point favorites in Vegas, and I think they'll be at least 2 TD's better when the game is over. It's not just that the Trojans are a complete football team, it's that Ohio State has not shown they can pressure the QB enough (just 3 sacks in 2 games so far) to make things tough on Marc Sanchez. We shall see, and I hope it's a great game, but I think the Men of Troy manhandle Ohio State, and blow things wide open in the Big 10 (obviously this isn't a conference game, but starting Sunday you'll hear a LOT of talk about how Penn State and Wisconsin are as good or better than the Buckeyes).

# 2 Georgia: Will QB Matt Stafford be the #1 pick in April's NFL draft?
Not a lot of questions about Georgia's team right now, none that will get answered against an overrated South Carolina team anyway. So with the dearth of awful quarterbacking in the league right now, as well as zero quality senior QB's in college AND whispers that Florida's Tim Tebow might want to return for his senior season, Stafford has been handed the #1 QB spot on a platter. While he's never going to get the opportunity to throw as much as say Sam Bradford at Oklahoma or Sanchez at SC, Stafford just needs to be make plays when he has to and win some big games. Hey, it worked for Jamarcus Russell at LSU a few years ago, so there's no reason to think Stafford can't do the same.

#4 Florida: Just what do the Gators have to do to find a running back?
Yes they handled Miami 26-3, but the offense looked less than stellar, and in bad news for Gator fans, it looks like Tebow could once again be the team's best running back. Their second leading rusher? Receiver Percy Harvin. Sure, Heisman Tim is built like a defensive end, but all that pounding is to going to make an injury much more likely, and another shot at a national championship that much less. If the Gators want to play for the title or a BCS bowl, they can't have their QB and best WR lead the team in rushing.

#5 Ohio State: Were the Buckeyes hiding Terrelle Pryor last week?
Yep, they were. While I don't have evidence of this, I believe the Buckeyes have big plans for their much-hyped freshman QB. After lighting up poor Youngstown State in their first game, Pryor was 0-2 passing with just 5 carries for 37 yards. Seems fishy to me that a kid as good as Pryor is who can cause the matchup problems he does would be used so little. My conclusion is even the Ohio State coaches were on cruise control in their close call against Ohio, wanting to show USC as little as possible knowing the Trojans had two weeks off to prepare for the game. Look for Pryor to be a big part of the Bucks' plans, especially since starter Todd Boeckman has been awful against good teams dating back to last year (the NCAA uses a different QB rating system than the NFL. In the NFL, a 75-80 rating is ok. In college, it's not. In the last four games of the season, Ohio State played Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan and then LSU in the title game. Boeckman was solid against Bucky Badger throwing for just 166 yds and 2 TD's for a QB rating of 101.2 But in his last three games he had ratings of 37.9, 30.9, and 77.1. Ouch. Doesn't inspire much confidence, and only gives more credence for unleashing Pryor on USC this Saturday).

#3 Oklahoma #6 Mizuruh #8 Texas: What in the name of the triple option is going on in the Big 12?
Not so long ago, the Big 12 (and dating back to the days of the Big 8 and Southwest Conference) teams in the southwest were known for running the football, running the football, and running the football. The Sooners, Longhorns and Huskers dominated the landscape running the ball at any and all times. Well with the spread of The Spread, it's not just the little guys throwing the football anymore. Oklahoma, Mizuruh and Texas are three legit national title contenders, and all three are just killing people through the air. Just last Saturday Bradford threw for 395 yds and 5 TD's, Chase Daniel put up 245 and 3 (on 16 of 17 passing!!!), and Colt McCoy, who is putting up the kind of numbers Horns fans expected of him last year, merely threw for 282 yds and 4 scores. You know, no big deal. The times, they are a changin', and for these three, it looks to be for the better.

#10 Wisconsin #17 Penn State: Fine I'll ask: Is one of these teams the best in the Big 10 this year?
Too soon to tell. A cop out answer? Probably, but neither side has been truly tested. We can say that both have been very impressive thus far, and Scony at least has a chance to prove something as they travel to #21 Fresno State this weekend. My biggest question for them is can they throw enough to win? Playing 2 cupcakes so far Bucky has rolled for 562 yds rushing and 10 TD's at 5.5 yards per carry (The Wisconsin Winnebago PJ Hill has racked up 267 and 4 all by himself) while throwing for just 404 yards and two touchdowns. I'm not advocating for the Badgers to go four wide and throw all day, but against good teams, like Fresno State this Saturday, and teams in the Big 10, they're not going to be able to just lineup and run all day. Or will they? QB Allen Evridge (who's been very efficient so far) doesn't have to put up Big 12 passing numbers, but just has to make plays when needed to keep eight or nine guys from loading up at the line of scrimmage.

Penn State, on the other hand, has made a switch to what they call The Spread HD: well so far so good. They've destroyed 1-AA Coastal Carolina and the vastly overrated Oregon State Beavers in their first two games, and while they're not as pass-heavy as the aforementioned Big 12 teams, they're getting an offensive balance with QB Daryll Clark that they haven't had since Michael Robinson was lining up under center. We won't find out much more about the Nittany Lions in the next two weeks as they face two of the worst 1-A teams in the land in Syracuse and Temple, but when they host Illinois in prime time Sept 27th, we should have a lot to talk about.

Darth Vader vs. Lord Sauron: Which Most Hated Program is in worse shape?
Tune into NBC this Saturday to find out!! Probably not the headline The Notre Dame Network had hoped for as Michigan visits the Irish, but about the only reason to tune into this one is for the car crash turkey-necking appeal. 1-0 Notre Dame and the um, "smug" Charlie Weis (there's a much more descriptive and accurate word that rhymes with bassbowl that I can't use on a family site such as this) square off against 1-1 Michigan and their new head coach Rich Rodriguez. Both teams were lucky to get the victories they did last week, and the winner in this one will be a "Common Man Dan Cole" Special: the best of the lousiest and the lousiest of the best. The Wolverines do not have a quarterback to run Rodriguez's spread system and rank 117 in total offense. The Irish have Uber recruit Jimmy Clausen as the perfect QB to run Weis' "genius" system, and yet Notre Dame is 83rd in total offense and just 60th passing. Defensively, they're not very good either. This won't be much of a game, and I'm not sad I'll miss it, but it's still compelling in a "watching a train wreck" sort of way. Who wins? Everybody who hates these two schools.

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