While I did a lot of prep for my two fantasy baseball drafts, I can’t say I’ve done a lot of prep into who’s going to do what this year. But one thing really, really bothers me: all of the people picking the New York Yankees and/or the Boston Red Sox over the defending AL champs the Tampa Bay Rays. For the life of me I do not understand this. Follow along, if you will…
First, there’s the Yankees, who dropped a huge chunk of change this offseason for 1B Mark Teixeira and starters CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. Definitely upgrades, and definitely some needed moves for them, but I’m missing how this turns them into a 100 win juggernaut and how these three massive signings makes all the baseball world wrong. Sabathia has piled up more innings than any other starter the last few years, and he’s not exactly in the best shape of his career- unless his desired shape is either “round” or “rotund.” I’m just saying conditioning, as well as fatigue and wear and tear on his arm could be a factor. Burnett has amazing stuff- like top 3 in baseball type stuff- but he’s a flake. Hell, I put to you we should stop calling people “flaky” and start calling them either “Burnetty” or “Pulling an AJ”. He is the dictionary definition of the phrase “a (multi) million dollar arm and a ten cent head”. He’s been on the DL a lot over his career, and according to his own teams it hasn’t always been because they think he should be there. Last year he didn’t pitch for over a month because he just didn’t feel 110% healthy- even though team doctors could find nothing wrong with him. And now you’re going to put him in the world’s largest and toughest media market on the one of the most scruitinized and publicized teams on the planet and expect him to make it? Hey at least they got a bargain on the guy for the low, low price of $80 million.
As for Teixeira, there’s nothing wrong with him- actually there’s a lot right. He’s one of the best defensive first basemen in the game (a massive upgrade at that spot to Giambi), and is a solid middle of the order bat. But he’s not one of the best 20, or even 30, hitters in the game. He’s just not. Good yes, but not a monster middle of the order bat, and not worth what the Yanks paid him.
Around this trio you then add a suspect rotation, an even more suspect bullpen, A-Rod out for at least a month and possibly much longer, and an outfield foursome of Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher. Yep, Jeter will be Jeter and Cano is due to bounce back, but I just don’t see how this is the best team in the AL East.
Boston? They continue to make smart signings for comeback candidates like starters Brad Penny and John Smoltz. After blowing up their 2004 World Series champs team, they only made some tweaks to 2008’s playoff team, which was probably smart considering I wouldn’t have paid what the Yankees had to in order to get their 3 big signings (although I know the Sox were in love with Teixeira). That said, the rotation and bullpen will be good, and defensively if everyone stays healthy they should be good again, but what about the hitting? Big Papi has been in decline for three straight years, certainly because Manny’s not there to protect him (even though he’s only been gone for half a season) and not at all because of more stringent steroid testing. Never. Impossible.
Anyway, so Big Papi is now just Papi, 3B Mike Lowell’s hurt and was generally awful last year, their SS position doesn’t look great (Jed Lowrie should win the job and is a decent shortstop defensively, but is not a top of the order hitter), AL MVP Dustin Pedroia will never have a better season than he did last year, and JD Drew is known to be “Burnetty” (see how that just rolls off the tongue?) from time to time. I like Jason Bay (he’s a Canadian from BC, so of course I like him), Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury, but there’s still plenty of uncertainty in the Sox batting order.
Which brings us to the Tampa Bay Rays. You know, the little bunch of overachievers who represented the AL in the World Series last year? Yeah, those guys. See the 2008 Rays weren’t a mirage or a miracle or some kind of one hit wonder- that’s their true talent level. They made a huge upgrade defensively to go from one of the worst defensive clubs in 2007 to the best in 2008, and their young pitchers and hitters started coming of age and doing what they’re supposed to do. The team is so deep in pitching they sent the best pitching prospect in baseball, David Price (who was awesome out of the pen in their playoff run) down to AAA to start the season, they picked up former Cards closer Jason Isringhausen to add bullpen depth, picked up promising RF Matt Joyce in a trade with the Tiggers, and they made the best free agent signing of the offseason, picking up former Phillies OF Pat Burrell for almost nothing (2 years, $16 million) to be their DH, which is the one area they needed improvement. So they not only have all of their important pieces back from a World Series runner-up, but even made improvements to that team, yet everybody’s going to pick them third? Really?
I’m not saying the Red Sox and Yankees will be awful. Far from it actually, as I think the Red Sox will win the Wild Card and the Yankees will be at .500 or better, but there’s absolutely, positively no way either of these teams are better than the Rays. None.
While I’m 110% right about the Rays, I’m not so sure about anybody else in the AL- or NL for that matter. So for what it’s worth, here’s my predictions for everybody else:
AL Central- Cleveland (the AL West is the worst division in baseball, but the Central is second worst. Not a lot of good teams here. Everybody has some major holes, the Tribe have the fewest.)
AL West- Oakland (Anaheim’s starting rotation is in shambles due to injury, they don’t hit very well and their defenders, especially in the outfield are in sharp decline. Other than there’s a lot to love with the Halos)
Wildcard- Boston
NL East- New York Mets (they can't choke away the division three straight years, can they?)
NL Central- Chicago Cubs (not the game’s best team, but they will have the best record because they play in the NL and are just that much better than everyone else in this division)
NL West- LA Dodgers (will challenge the Cubbies for most wins)
Wildcard- um…Phillies? DBacks? Cards? Brewers? I’m going with the Braves, and not just because they won last night.
ALDS- Tampa over Oakland, Boston over Cleveland
NLDS- Chicago over Atlanta, LA Dodgers over NY Metropolitans
ALCS- Tampa over Boston (again)
NLCS- Dodgers over Cubbies
World Series- Tampa over LA
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment