The Monday Musings- NBA Finals Edition

I have not mused about the NBA (non-draft stuff) in quite some time, but my lovely fiance and I got back from her folks place in Wisconsin just in time for me to catch all of the 4th quarter and overtime. A few thoughts...

...I'm going to go ahead and guarantee two things: the Lakers will win this series, and they will do so at home. While I don't think there's anyway possible the Magic will win four of the next five games (Sure, the Heat overcame a 2-0 hole in the 2006 Finals, but they had three things going for them: a rising superstar in Dwyane Wade, a rising superstar in Wade who attacked the basket almost anytime he had the ball, and a Stern Mandate to start calling fouls on Dallas as soon as Wade entered the building. Sure, Orlando has the rising superstar in Howard, but he's not the offensive force Wade is, and none of his teammates go to the rim), let's just say the NBA will do everything it can to assign the refs most suited to making sure the Magic will get two of the next three at home. As Bill Simmons has said time and again, the NBA isn't rigging games as much as assigning the worst refs possible for the situation to try and influence the outcome. The Magic are not as good as the Lakers, but they're definitely good enough to take two of three at home. Especially when you consider that while the Magic shot better last night than game 1 (they were 33% from 3 but only 41% from the field), they still have one of those "everything they throw up will go in) kind of games coming, and are going to get some, um, "help" from the refs.

...Courtney Lee's alley-oop miss at the end of regulation was a tough shot. His momentum was carrying him under the basket with Pau Gasol coming over to block the shot, but as an NBA player, he HAS to make that shot. Has to. If it was a better known player- Howard, Rashard Lewis or Hedo Turkoglu- who had taken that shot, they'd be getting murdered in the media and on the interweb. Tough shot yes, but not impossible and with a perfect pass from Turkoglu, he HAS to make that one.

...this season is setting up as the Perfect Storm for Kobe Doin' Work because he's going to get his all-important title as the Best Player on His Own Team just as his window of opportunity is closing shut. I have not watched much of the NBA playoffs, so I'm probably telling people who have something they already know: Kobe is now just a jumpshooter. The thing that stood out most to me last night was how Kobe doesn't get to the rim and finish anymore. Instead of blowing by guys and finishing in traffic, Kobe now uses the drive to set up his jumper. It's effective, but it obviously decreases his efficiency. On the occassions when he can drive past somebody, instead of going over, around or through the help defenders that slide over, he's now pulling up for jumpers or floaters. Take his shot just before the end of regulation: in the old days, he blows by Turkoglu, elevates over Howard and either dunks and/or lays it up and draws the foul to boot. He hits the clutch free throws and game over. But last night, after he got by the slow-footed Turkoglu, instead of elevating over Howard, he pulls up and tries to attempt a fade-away, giving the recover Turkoglu time to swat his shot from behind. All the credit in the world should go to Hedo for recovering and making the play, but Kobe never gives him the chance to a year or two ago.

Kobe is in unchartered territory here: he's been a warrior in the league since he was 17, and while he's been banged up here and there, you have to say he's been pretty durable over his career: and even though he's only 30 it's been a LONG career. 948 regular season games, all of the playoff games, the Olympics and everything else means Kobe's played the same as a 35 or 36 year old. People want to make the comparisons of how Jordan, as he got older, was able to transition himself from an attack-the-basket physical freak to a jump shooter and how Kobe's done the same. True, except that MJ could still blow by defenders in his early 30's, where as we're seeing now, Kobe can't. So yes, Kobe is making the necessary changes to his game that MJ did, but it's changes Mike didn't make until he was 34 or 35, while Kobe has to do it at 30.

Where I'm going with all of this is that Kobe was one of the three best players on the planet this year (along with Bronbron and Wade), but starting perhaps as soon as next season, he'll slip down to a top 10, then top 20, then to "MJ with the Wizards"
status by the time he's in his mid-30's. This year was one of his last few years to be able to to dominate a season and a post season and win the title by himself. Doing so, if/when the Lakers finish off the Magic, means Kobe goes from borderline top 10 of all-time type to definitely in the top 9 (I'd put MJ, Russell, Magic, Bird, Wilt, West, Oscar, and probably Shaq. Elgin Baylor too?), and it was the perfect year to do it.

While we didn't know it at the time, when KG's season ended with a knee injury, so too did any hope of anybody knocking off the Lakers this year. A healthy Celtics squad was the only team capable of beating the Lakers this year (and I believe they would have- same recipe they won with last year, with the added bonus of Rajan Rondo becoming one of the L's three best point guards. He would have MURDERED the Lakers all by himself). We found out how overrated the Lebrons were, the Magic just don't matchup well, and as we suspected, nobody in the West was touching them. Kobe's been the best player on a title team, and nobody will be able to take it away from him, and this might have been his last chance.

Next year, the Cavs will/should/HAVE to be better in what's possibly Lebron's swansong, Portland has a chance to get dangerous, Houston has some interesting possibilities, and Chicago could be downright frightening (Orlando will be one of the East's best yet again, but they don't have the cap or roster flexibility to really change anything). 2009/10 should be an exciting year (if you can stomach all the "Lebron to New York!!" talk. Good lord it hasn;t even started and I'm sick of it already), but the chances for a Lakers title will certainly be tougher than it was this year.

So enjoy Orlando's home wins, and enjoy the coronation of a Champion in LA. Kobe certainly will, as it could be the last one he gets as one of the league's best players.