Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Ranking the Point Guards

Two days to go until the 2009 NBA Draft, when hopefully the fortunes of the Minnesota Timberwolves will start changing for the better. This is a point guard-heavy draft, which is convenient considering the Wolves are in desparate need of one. Last season Randy Foye proved he's much better off as a two guard (although I still believe on a good team he's a sixth man), and Kevin Ollie and Bassy Telfair proved what we already knew- neither should be starting in the league.

There's been a wide range of opinions on who the best point guards are, so I might as well throw my two cents into the discussion and rank the top 10...

1. Ricky Rubio, 6'4, 18, Spain
He's been called everything from the second coming of Pistol Pete Maravich to a sure-fire NBA bust. Rubio's true potential lies somewhere in between, but I can't believe so many people are questioning this kid's abilities. He's the same kid who was so impressive in the Olympics, and unlike any other high first round prospect in this draft, has been effectively running a team in one of Europe's top leagues. His basketball IQ is off the charts and he makes everyone around him better. And he's 18 YEARS OLD!!! Who cares if he can't shoot right now and doesn't have off-the-charts athleticism? The jump shot will come with age, and if at 18 he's already starting and excelling against guys 5-15 years older than him, he's going to figure out how to excel in the NBA. To me he's unquestionably the second best player in this draft, and I would love- LOVE- to see David Kahn trade up to get him. Good lord, I might even buy Wolves tickets if he did.

2. Tyreke Evans, 6'5, 19, Memphis
If the Wolves can't get Rubio then Evans is far and away my next choice. He's not going to have a problem scoring in the NBA, and if he can improve his jumper, he's going to be scary. At 6'5 he's big enough to guard either backcourt spot, and will be ready to start and contribute from day one. He doesn't have the most upside in the draft but other than Blake Griffin is the most likely to fulfill his potential.

3. Eric Maynor, 6'3, 22, VCU
I rank him this high because he's got good size at the point (well, he's got good height. At 165 he's going to need to gain some strength), and is ready to run an NBA team right now. Maynor will probably never be an all-star, but will be an effective floor general for the next decade, a la Mookie Blaylock.

4. Ty Lawson, 6'0, 21, North Carolina
ESPN.com basketball stats guru John Hollinger had him as the second highest ranked player in the draft behind Griffin. Yes he's barely 6'0, but he was the dictionary definition of efficient. Handling pressure (both on the court and from the fans and media) will be no sweat for a kid who just led the nation's most glamorous program to a national title averaging 30 mins per game 53.2 FG%/47.2% 3Pt/79.8% FT for 16.6 pts, 2.1 stls, and an unreal 6.6/1.9 assist/turnover ratio. The only question is whether he's too small to play in the NBA, but if the T-Pups can't get Rubio, I'd love to see them take Evans at 6 and Lawson at 18.

5. Jonny Flynn, 6'0, 20, Syracuse
I loved watching Flynn at The Cuse, but he's definitely not a true point guard. If he was 6'3 or 6'4 he'd be challenging Rubio as the second player taken, but at 5'11 on a tall day, he might be more of a sixth man scorer than starter, However, guys like Nate Robinson and Aaron Brooks are encouraging examples for Flynn's success.

6. Stephen Curry, 6'3, 20, Davidson
I'm just not sure Curry will be more than an off-the-bench scoring specialist. Yes he can score in his sleep, but at barely 6'3 and rail thin, is he strong and quick enough to be anything more than a spot-up shooter off screens? And who is he guarding? If he's going to an up-tempo, wide open system like the Knicks or Warriors he might have a chance, but in a conventional half court offense I think he struggles. And considering that the NBA playoffs always come down to a grind-it-out half court style, well let's just say I'm skeptical at best. If the Wolves take him, I just hope I'm wrong.

7. Jrue Holiday, 6'4, 19, UCLA
So just what is he? A true point or a two guard? A combo guard? Neither? Was he a poor fit for UCLA coach Ben Howland's system, or does he just not have a true position to play? If the first five are gone, I'd take him as a true point and see what happens.

8. Patrick Mills, 6'0, 20, St. Mary's
After a strong Olympic performance for Australia followed by a dominant first semester for St Mary's, Mills was playing his way into the lottery. Then a broken foot sidelined him until the tail end of the year, and when he returned, he clearly wasn't all the way back. Had he returned to St. Mary's and stayed healthy next season he would have been back in the lottery conversation for 2010, but by staying in the draft, somebody is going to get an absolute steal late in the first round.

9. Jeff Teague, 6'2, 20, Wake Forest
Which Teague would an NBA team get- the one who exploded onto the national scene by leading the Demon Deacons to the #1 spot in the polls midway through the season? Or the guy who disappeared from then on?

10. Brandon Jennings, 6'1, 19, Italy
After his ridiculous comments about Rubio and from everything I've read on his attitude, I want no part of Jennings. Sure, he's freakishly athletic and quick, but he's a me-first guy who has a much better chance of alienating his teammates instead of bringing them together.

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