NFC playoff predictions

Who doesn't love predictions? Heck, who doesn't love making predictions? One of my favorite things to do this time of year is to try to figure out who in the h-e-double-hockey-sticks are going to be playoffs teams in the NFL. Since the league went to the 8 division format back in 2002, we've had an average of almost four repeat division winners and six total playoff teams getting back in. Check out the stats that follow:

(first four teams in each conference won their division, last two were wild cards):
2007
NFC – Dallas, Green Bay, Tampa, Seattle, NYG, Wash
AFC- Ne, Pit, Indy, SD, Jax, Tenn
Repeat division winners: 4
Repeat playoff teams: 6

2006
NFC- Philly, Chicago, NO, Seattle, Dallas, NYG
AFC- NE, Balt, Indy, SD, NYJ, KC
RDW: 4
RPT: 5

2005
NFC- NYG, Chi, TB, Seattle, Wash, Carolina
AFC- NE, Cincy, Indy, Denver, Pitt, Jax
RDW: 3
RPT: 4

2004
NFC- Philly, GB, Atl, Seattle, Minny, STL
AFC- NE, Pit, Indy, SD, Denver, NYJ
RDW: 4
RPT: 7

2003
NFC- Phil, GB, Carol, STL, Dall, Sea
AFC- NE, Balt, Indy, KC, Den, Tenn
RDW: 3
RPT: 5

2002
NFC- philly, GB, TB, SF, NYG, Atl
AFC- Ne, Pit, Tenn, Oak, Ind, Den

Average # of Repeat Division Winners: 3.6
Average # of Repeat Playoff Teams: 5.4

So in the six seasons since we went to this format, it's been pretty consistent in the number of repeat division winners and repeat playoff teams we see from year to year. You could take the low side and say we'll only see 3 repeat Div winners and 5 repeat playoff teams, but me, I'm taking the averages and rounding up.

Let's look at the 2007 playoff teams again, and see who looks good to get back to the playoffs in 2008:

NFC
Dallas, Green Bay, Tampa Bay Tampa Bay, Seattle, New York Football Giants, Washington

To be honest, I really only see two of these teams being shoo-ins to return to the playoffs: Dallas and Warshington (by the way, I love people that pronounce it "Warshington". I've never understood where the random "r" comes from. I also love people that say "Nayshunuls" instead of Nationals. Good times). Here's a fun fact: guess the last time the Dallas Cowboys won a playoff game. No really, guess. The Cowboys had the NFC's best team for most of last season, but faded late before the wheels came off in the postseason. Looking at this team, they seem primed to be the conference's best team again. There's really only chemistry issues to stop them right now. And I do think the Marion Barber/Felix Jones combo will be even better than Barber/Julius Jones was. Jones is lighting fast and a much better compliment to the type of runner Barber is than Jones was.

As for Washington, they came on in the second half last year winning their last four games to get into the playoffs, and I've heard nothing but good things coming out of their camp so far. Clinton Portis should be 100%, which means he'll be an elite back again, the line is improved, they have like 17 good WR's all under 6'0, and QB Jason Campbell seems to be coming into his own. The D also looks to be stingy again.

As for the other four, well there's some real questions here. I, for one, think Green Bay has HEE_YUUUUUGGGEEE Ewing Theory Potential (the Sports Guy's theory that when a great/hall of fame-type player leaves a franchise and everybody writes them off, they end up surprising everybody. The New York Football Giants, who had Tiki Barber walk away before last season in a very public and ugly way- remember Tiki savaged head coach Tom Coughlin on his way out- and all they did was win the Super Bowl). Their D is young, fast, and downright scary, they have a solid line and good developing receivers. Their 2 big questions- and they're definitely big- are whether RB Ryan Grant is for real (remember one-year wonder Samkon Gado?), and whether Aaron Rodgers can handle all of this insanity and pressure. I'm betting Grant IS for real and that Rodgers will be fine.

The other three look sketchy at best. The Giants were nobody's pick to win the Super Bowl at any point last year, and I don't think they made enough good moves in the offseason to improve (or offset the loss of DE Michael Strahan). Ewing Theory? Nope, because all the pigskin prognosticators seem to think they'll be fine. I just think they caught lighting in a bottle. For the last few years we've seen the Super Bowl loser not make the playoffs the following year. Well I believe this year, the trend reverses.

Tampa and Seattle will both be worse. The Bucs, without or without Brett Favre, are just not any better on paper than Carolina or New Orleans. I don't think Tampa will be awful, I just don't think they're making the playoffs. And the Seahawks, if you look at the chart again, have had a helluva a run under Holmgren, winning four straight division titles, but it comes to an end this year. For one thing the division should be better (if it seems like I say that every year, it's because I say that every year), and for the other, as bad as Shaun Alexander was last year, I just don't see Julius Jones and Maurice Morris being any better.

So to recap the NFC, the Cowboys and Pack repeat as division winners, while the Redskinnies get back in as wild cards. 3 "repeaters" in, 3 more to go from the NFC which, just glancing at, is looking almost impossible to take only 2 division winners and another repeater. Still, you do not argue with The Chart, because The Chart never lies. So we'll look at the AFC tomorrow.

By the way, Dallas last won a playoff game in 1996. I know, it blew my mind too.