The 2008 Shocking Super Sleeper

Welcome back to the longest running segment in the history of blogging: me trying to make NFL predictions. I feel like this started sometime in February. For you, it probably feels any longer. Last post I took a mulligan on my AFC Picks, and changed them to this:
AFC
East- New England (including best overall record)
North- Pittsburgh (the other bye)
South- Indianapolis
West- Denver
Wildcards- Houston and...

That sixth and final team in the AFC is going to be our 2008 Shocking Super Sleeper, and we have seven candidates that fit our criteria for the "SSS": no more than 5 wins last year, and nobody's talking much about them for this season. There was actually an eighth team that finished with just four wins last year, but I'm pretty sure you might have heard a little bit about their latest acquisition: The J-E-T-S BRETTS! BRETTS! BRETTS! Yes the Jets finished just 4-12 last season, made some big free agent signings and some decent draft picks...and then traded for some guy named Brett Favre. I think ESPN might have devoted a couple of minutes of coverage to it- or a month and a half straight. Either way, the Jets aren't exactly flying under the media radar anymore, so they're out of the running for the SSS. And to be honest, with or without Favre, it's just as well since they're not making the playoffs.

While we're here, don't you love it when sports writers become big whiny babies, just like the athletes they cover? Jets WR Laverneus Coles is good friends with now former Jets QB Chad Pennington, who got kicked to the curb the same day they traded for Favre. Coles is upset because he believes the teams should have treated Pennington better. Instead of whining about it to the media, he's chosen to keep quiet and go about his business. The New York media aren't happy about it since they want another easy angle and story to the Favre Saga, but since Coles won't comply they're chosen to write about what a bad guy Coles is...except nobody on his team agrees. Don't you just love the media sometimes?

Here then are our seven candidates, listed in order from least likely to most likely...

7. San Francisco 49ers (2007 record: 5-11)
It's not a good sign when your team's coach is using the phrases "our starting quarterback" and "JT O'Sullivan" in the same sentence- without it ending in "when hell freezes over". Two years after selecting QB Alex Smith with the #1 overall pick, the Niners are set to use the career journeyman (in six career games with Detroit and Green Bay his QB rating is 48.2), which means the Niners season is over before it starts. The rest of their team is ok at best: too bad the Niners can't hope for the same.

6. Kansas City Chiefs, (4-12)
It bothers me putting Kansas City here, but I had to for one big reason: Brodie Croyle. In 11 career games he has completed just 56.3% of his passes, throwing 6 TD's and 8 INT's. Not exactly "hey let's get behind this guy!" kind of numbers, are they? And it's not like they're overflowing with talent around him: Larry Johnson was banged up last year (and averaged just 3.5 yards per carry), 2nd year wideout is the "veteran" in that group (he was good last year but not THAT good), and they have to replace one of the best guards of this era in Will Shields, which won't be easy. Defensively I like this team, but I liked them a lot more when they had Jared Allen. Without him, it's tough to see where those sacks are going to come from.

5. St Louis Rams, (3-13)
At first glance, you get excited about names like Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson and Torry Holt. But then you look at the rest of the roster...and get a lot less excited. There's still some talent here, but the offensive line without T Orlando Pace was awful, and defensively, the team wasn't much better. They're going to need a LOT of improvement in those two areas to get much better.

4. Miami Dolphins, (1-15)
They're virtually guaranteed to pick up four or five more wins than last year just because of a)the Bill Parcells effect and b) there's no way they can be that bad again. Still, this is not a playoff team yet. While they were no longer wanted, losing both Zac Thomas and Jason Taylor can't make your defense better, and it's not like there's a lot of talent left over. On offense, yes, Chad Pennington is an upgrade on what they started training camp with, but it's still CHAD PENNINGTON! That's like having a Pinto and a Pacer to choose from, and suddenly somebody gives you a Corolla. Is it an upgrade? Of course, but it's still only a Corolla! So let's all calm down that the Dolphins are suddenly playoff-bound with The Chad in town because the other pieces just aren't there. You're asking for A LOT if you think Ernest Wilford (who was the most reliable and underappreciated in that group of Jaguar receivers from the last few years) and Ted Ginn Jr can give you production catching the ball. I've seen some preseason pundits who believe Ginn's going to step in nicely as the team's #1 receiver. I'll tell you what, I'll believe it when I see it. Ginn has NEVER been the best receiver on his own team (Santonio Holmes and Anthony Gonzalez were both much more productive college players when the three played at Ohio State), and he never really learned to run good routes. Can you be a #1 NFL receiver just because you're fast? We'll find out.

Atlanta, 4-12
One rule for picking playoff teams: you CANNOT choose teams who are starting a rookie quarterback. That's why I rule out the Falcons, but begrudgingly so, because I like everything else about them. And I'm not for a minute saying they're making a mistake by starting #1 pick Matt Ryan: Ryan, from what I've seen and read, looks like a very mature kid (which shouldn't be surprising considering he looks like he's 35), and he could be a very good quarterback. And it's not like they have better options on the roster: Chris Redman? Joey "Bust" Harrington? DJ Shockley? Ryan's the right choice, even if it kills their chances this season (the only team to have done well with a rookie QB were the Pittsburgh Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger, but that was the PERFECT situation because they were stacked everywhere but QB. Their D was awesome, they only threw when they had to, had Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress AND Antwan Randel El to throw to, and had one of the best O-lines of the past 10 years. You couldn't ask for a better situation to bring a rookie QB into. While Atlanta looks promising, they're not this good. Not yet). The defense should be salty, their wide receivers show potential, and Mike The Burner Turner will keep the chains moving on the ground. There's a lot here to like, but Ryan starting means no playoffs. But for 2009? Keep an eye on them.

2. Oakland, 4-12
Eight wins. That's how many games Oakland will win this year. Mark it down. The team who has put the "D" in Dysfunction is on the way back. A man-crush on Darren McFadden? Yes, thanks, I do. With teams in recent years seemingly able to pull productive running backs off the street (We can thank the Denver Broncos for starting this trend), people have lost appreciation for the really great collegiate backs. Adrian Peterson last year dropped to 7th because teams were thinking "no worries, we'll find a running back in a later round- or working at Walmart" and all Peterson did was run all over the league. McFadden is this year's Peterson: in the SEC, the best conference in college football, Run DMC never ran for LESS than 1113 yards or 11 TD's (he notched both of those as a freshman), totaling 4590 yards rushing and 41 TD's in three seasons, which included 1st team All-America honors as a sophomore and junior. He had off the chart combine numbers AND has a clean injury history (...quickly knocking on wood...). There's no downside to McFadden. To add to it, he's splitting carries with Justin Fargas, who last year ran for over 1000 yards, so it's not like he has to carry the whole load. What's more, there's much more than McFadden here. JaMarcus Russell had a solid rookie year and looks primed to take some positive steps this season, moving Robert Gallery from tackle to guard solidifies the line, and the defense was actually better than you think. Thanks to their off-season wheeling and dealing that nabbed them CB Deangelo Hall and S Gibril Wilson, they might have the best defensive backs in the league, and have a solid set of linebackers in front of them. The questions? 3 of them, and they're big: Russell can't win games by himself yet, so somebody in their sketchy group of wideouts needs to step up. I mean, we're asking Javon Walker to go a whole season without getting shot or throwing money in the air at strip clubs to prove how rich he is? Who could be resist those temptations? Second thing is the defensive line. You or I could have ran for five or six yards a pop on these guys, and with all the off-season spending, they didn't address this area. Third is really first, and will always be the biggest question looming over this franchise: how will Al Davis screw things up? Watching the NFL Networks AWESOME Super Bowl champion series, I had a new appreciation for Al Davis watching the episodes on the Raiders teams of the 1970's. Al's problem is he still thinks we're in the 1970's and he still knows what he's doing. Lane Kiffin is an excellent young coach, but could get run out of town at any moment for not running Al's kind of offense (or wearing bell bottoms. There's just no way to tell). The Raiders quietly have a lot going for them this year, but The Al Factor keeps me from picking them. Well that, and I just plain like our next team better...

1. Baltimore Ravens (5-11)
Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Shocking Super Sleeper. The Ravens win 10 games and grab a wild card spot. Let's start where you always start with the Ravens: defense. The defense went from the best group in points allowed and yards allowed in 2006 to 22nd in points and 6th in yards. There's a lot of teams in the league who would have loved to have that "drop", yet because the Ravens offense was so, well, they had a typical year, which was disappointing and unproductive. The team went from a 13 win season in 2006 to just 5 last year. So what's going to change this year? For starters, they finally have a new coach. Offensive "Genius" Brian Billick was finally run out of town and replaced by John Harbaugh (not to be confused with former Bears quarterback Jim Harbaugh who's coaching Stanford). A new coach combined with a motivated group of veterans equals a big season for Baltimore. The defense is still loaded, and after last year will now be cheering with a chip on their shoulder. This could be the NFL's best unit in 2008. That's probably not hard to believe, but an improvement on offense? Believe it. Losing one of the all-time best tackles in Jonathan Ogden hurts, but there's enough talent here to keep the offense clicking. Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton and Todd Heap are a talented group of pass catchers, and there's a stable of good running backs ready to go. Willis McGahee is hoping to be ready to go for opening day, but even if he's not, rookie Ray Rice looks like a nice sleeper as his back-up or fill-in.

The key, of course, is quarterback. As of today, Kyle Boller is NOT the starting quarterback. For the Ravens to succeed, the only time Boller should step on the field is for warmups and post-game handshakes. First round pick Joe Flacco could be a nice player in a couple of years, but as mentioned with Atlanta, if he starts, the Ravens chances go down the tubes. So the pressure is on second year field general Troy Smith to take the reigns and lead the Ravens to the playoffs. Look, I like Smith. Really liked him at Ohio State, and thought people made WAY too big a deal of his stinker in the National Championship game against Florida (honestly, when Ted Ginn Jr got hurt in that game, the Buckeyes were done. Peyton Manning or Joe Montana couldn't have beaten that team without Ginn's ability to stretch the field and open things up for everyone else). His biggest knocks against him were he was 6'0 tall and he stunk in his last college game, and so he dropped to the fifth round. But nothing else about him has changed heading into his second year: he's poised, has a great arm, good mobility, and has thrived under pressure before at Ohio State (well except for that one game). I'm very bullish on Smith this year, and very bullish on the Ravens. With Smith running the show, they're going to be a scary team to watch, and to me, have the least amount of questions to answer of anybody on this is. It's a big question, to be sure, but I'm putting my stock in Troy Smith and the Ravens as the 2008 Shocking Super Sleeper.