Dare to Compare

Happy Labor Day Weekend everybody (or as they'd say in Canada "Labour" Day). Whatever you're off to do and enjoy, when you get back to start your work week next Tuesday, we'll officially be into September. Can you believe it's September already? Yeah, me neither. Well here in Twins Town, fans of the Little Engine That Could are gearing up for what should be a great pennant race for the Hometown 9 as we enter the final month. Heading into the weekend, the Twins are chasing Soxes (since Sox isn't a real word, I'm taking the liberty of pluralizing it how I damn well please): a game and a half behind the White Sox for first place in the division, and two and a half games behind the Red Sox for the Wild Card. This weekend will also feature a Battle of the Soxes as the teams play three games at Fenway Pawk (the teams have split their four previous meetings at Comiskey/US Cellular/Not Wrigley) The Yankees, at 6 back of Boston, are still mathematically in the race, but I don't think anybody outside of the Bronx believes they're going to make much of a run (hell at this point I'm not sure anyone in the Bronx thinks so either).

A Yankee-less postseason? Could the Red Sox join them? ESPN.com has an added feature in their baseball standings run by coolstandings.com, which has a crazy mathematical formula for giving each team odds of making the playoffs. Right now, the Red Sox lead this group of four with an 86.1%, the South Siders have a 62.4% shot, the "Best Team Carl Pohlad Can Buy with the Spare Change in His Couch" has a 49.3% chance, and the Yankees are sitting at just 3%. If you don't mind, I'm going to go ahead and take the Pinstripers out of this equation, because it's been a long time since we've been able to do that. However, enjoy your non-Yankee post season while you can, because with almost $90 million coming off the books after this year (from the expiring contracts of Bobby Abrea, Jason Giambi, Carl Pavano, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettite, Pudge Rodriquez and Kyle Farnsworth. And that $90 million, which is $30 million more than the Twins payroll, is not from the life of those contracts- that's just $90 million from the 2008 season!!!) I'm going to guarantee that the Yanks sign Brewers ace CC Sabathia, AND quite possibly Angels first baseman Mark Teixiera or Ben Sheets. For fun, and because Hank Steinbrenner wants to prove he's just as crazy as his old man, they could get all three. So seriously, enjoy the one year hiatus of the Darth Vaders, because they'll be back next year.

Alrighty then, three teams for two spots with one month to play. Here's how they stack up:

Minnesota Twins: 75-59 (.667 winning% at home .446 road) +65 Run differential, Games Back Div 1.5 Wild Card 2.5
Offense: RUNS 672 (6th in AL) AVG .278 (3rd in AL) OBP .337 (7) SLG .409 (9)
Pitching: ERA 4.15 (7) BAA .275 (12) K/BB 2.45 (3)
Defense: Defensive Efficiency: 0.694 (10th)
Remaining... Opponents Winning %: .469
... Games against the Soxes: White (3) Red (0)
... Games against other Winning Teams: 7
... Home Games: 12
... Schedule:
Aug 29-31 @ Oakland (62-72)- Twins are 3-4 against the A's this year
Sep 2-4 @ Toronto (68-65)- 0-3 vs Jays
Sep 5-7 vs Detroit (64-69)- 10-5 vs Tiggers
Sep 9-11 vs Kansas City (56-77)- 8-3 vs Royals
Sep 12-14 @ Baltimore (63-70)- 1-2 vs O's
Sep 15-17 @ Cleveland (65-67)- 10-5 vs Tribe
Sep 18-21 @ Tampa Bay (81-51)- 1-1 vs Rays
Sep 23-25 VS CHICAGO (76-57)- 7-8 vs White Sox
Sep 26-28 vs Kansas City (56-77)- 8-3 vs Royals

Chicago White Sox: 76-57 (.676 home .462 road), +108 Diff, GB div 1st WC 1.0
Offense: Runs 735 (2) AVG .268 (7), OBP .340 (5), SLG .458 (2)
Pitching: ERA 3.89 (5) BAA .256 (5) K/BB 2.53 (2)
Defense: DefEff: .701 (6th)
Remaining... Opponents Winning %: .520
... Games against: Twins (3) Red Sox (3)
... Games against other winning teams: 10
... Home Games: 13
... Schedule:
Aug 29-31 @ BOSTON (77-56)- 2-2 vs Red Sox
Sep 1-3 @ Cleveland (65-67)- 9-3 vs Tribe
Sep 5-7 vs Anaheim (81-52)- 3-4 vs the Halos
Sep 8-11 vs Toronto (68-65)- 0-4 vs "Canada's Team"
Sep 12-14 vs Detroit (64-69)- 9-6 vs the Teegreys
Sep 15-18 @ New York (71-62)- 1-2 vs the Goliaths
Sep 19-21 @ Kansas City (56-77)- 10-5 vs Royals
Sep 23-25 @ MINNESOTA (75-59)- 8-7 vs the Little Engine That Could
Sep 26-28 vs Cleveland (65-67)- 9-3 vs the Ricky Vaughn's

Boston Red Sox: 77-56 (.705 home .472 road) +122 Run Diff, GB Div 4.5 WC Leader
Offense: Runs 690 (3) AVG .281(1) OBP .358(1) SLG .446(3)
Pitching: ERA 4.00 (6) BAA .250 (4) K/BB 2.08 (8)
Defense: .706 (4th)
Remaining... Opponents Winning%: .534
... Games against: Twins (0) White Sox (3)
... Games against other winning teams: 16!!!
... Home Games: 19 games (to counter all the winning teams)
... Schedule:
Aug 29-31 vs CHICAGO (76-57)- 2-2 vs Pale Hoes
Sep 1-3 vs Baltimore (63-70)- 9-6 vs O's
Sep 5-7 @ Texas (66-69)- 7-0 vs Rangers
Sep 8-10 vs Tampa Bay (81-51)- 6-6 vs Rays
Sep 12-14 vs Toronto (68-65)- 4-7 vs Centre of the Universes
Sep 15-17 @ Tampa Bay (81-51)- 6-6 vs Rays
Sep 19-21 @ Toronto (68-65)- 4-7 vs Metric Morons
Sep 22-25 vs Cleveland (65-67)- 2-0 vs the Pedro Cerano's
Sep 26-28 vs New York (71-62)- 8-7 vs the Playing out the Strings

Ok first of all, what's with the Blue Jays absolutely owning these three teams? The Twinkies and Chisox are a combined 0-7, while the Red Sox are just 4-7 against them. That's metric domination right there, my friends. Toronto will have a HEE-YUGE say in who's in this race, as they'll play everybody one more series, and just for fun twice against the BoSox. Cleveland also gets everybody once, while Tampa will dust up the Twins for a series, and play 6 more vs the Red Sox.

Hard to pick a favorite here, which is why the Soxes have better odds than the Twins because making up ground over the next month is going to be difficult. The Twins have the advantage of the easiest remaining schedule, but I think we can all agree that if Minnesota can stay close, the division, and probably the Twins playoff chances, come down to the three game series with Chicago at the end of September. As for this weekend, I'd be cheering for a Red Sox sweep, because despite Boston's tough schedule (and possible issues with ace Josh Beckett), I still believe it'll be easier to catch Chicago than Boston.