2008 AFC Predictions: Way Freaking Harder Than It Looks!

So I thought I had a good thing going with this whole “3 teams in 3 teams out” from each conference thing. Had a nice, neat little chart which supported my argument and made me look like I kinda knew what I was talking about. Thought it went pretty well explaining who the two NFC repeat division winners would be and who would get back in as the wild card. Felt pretty confident heading off to write the AFC portion, ready to come back at you with more fancy-smancy picks from my can’t-miss formula…until I started looking a little closer. Holy shmoly. Have you looked at the AFC? I mean, really, have you? Take a look at who made the playoffs last year…

AFC
- New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego, Jacksonville, Tennessee

New England returns the Greatest Team to Win Absolutely Nothing, Pittsburgh is stacked, Indianapolis has won 5 straight division titles and returns a damn good team, San Diego brings back a group that got to the Conference Championship game and gave the Pats a scare, and the Jagwires (seriously, there are people who pronouce it “Jagwires”. Probably the same people who say “Warshington” and “Nationals”. Could we please, as a nation, just sit down and come to a decision on the proper way to pronounce a few words? Another I’ll add to the list is “roof”. Say the word “proof” for me…now take the “p” off the front and what do you have? Exactly- not “RUFF” but “Roof”. Same goes for “root”. Really not that hard. While we’re at it, let’s also come to a decision on one spelling of the name Lindsay. Or is it Lindsey. Or maybe Lindsy? I don’t care which, but for the love of pete, let’s just pick ONE, ok?!? Thank you) seem to be everybody’s chic pick to go to really make some noise in the playoffs.

Tennessee? I was as shocked as you were to see they made the playoffs. Vince Young was awful last year, but you know what? It’s ok because he’s become the Black Brett Favre. Announcers and the media fall all over themselves to say how great he is. Look, Vince is one of the best college players ever- EVER. Not just of this decade or this era, but EVER. Are we clear? The things he did at Texas were otherworldly. But he’s sucked as an NFL quarterback. Yes, he did finally complete over 60% of his passes last season, but he also threw just nine touchdowns to 17 INTERCEPTIONS, for a quarterback rating of just 71.7, 26th best in the league last season, and only one percentage point ahead of the one, the only Cleo Lemon.

VY is an excellent runner and an exciting player but is not, and will not, be a successful NFL quarterback. ANYWHO, Tennessee won last year because their defense was a-maze-ing, and it should be top notch again, but the offense is not improved enough (something called Justin Gage and Roydell Williams are their starting receivers. That’s right, STARTING RECEIVERS. And you thought the Vikings wideouts were bad) to get them into the playoffs again.

Still, that leaves us with five really good teams. To be honest, they might be the best five in football to start the year…and yet according to the formula, two of them have to go- or maybe just one. Looking at the chart a little closer, we find that 2007 was the only year where we had THREE division winners repeat, which helps us a bit. In 2005, New England, Indy, Denver, and Pittsburgh all made repeat trips to the postseason. So while I wanted to stick with “3 in 3 out” in each conference, there’s just no way that two of those five won’t be playing in January. So let’s say three repeat division winners and a fourth that gets back in as a wild card. Still, cutting even one division winner probably means they’re out of the playoffs entirely, since Jacksonville is the strongest non-division winner heading into the season, if they knocked off Indy for the AFC South, they would also be the fourth of our repeat playoff teams, meaning you couldn’t add Indy as a wild card. So while the three repeat division winners and four repeat playoff extension helps, it doesn’t help that much.

One thing that definitely factors in here is schedule strength, which can be tricky, since they’re based off of last year’s results. Since we know that the NFL can change quite a bit from one year to the next, it’s dangerous to put too much stock into schedule strength when trying to predict results for the coming season, but it’s still a useful tool.

Having said that, according to a number of websites and Schedule Strength Gurus, guess who has the EASIEST schedule in 2008? The New England Patriots. Doesn’t seem fair, does it? The Pats are helped immensely in this because they were the only team to finish over .500 in their division, so having three sub-.500 teams on your schedule a total of six times certainly doesn’t hurt. However, outside of the division the schedule still isn’t very strong, as Indy, San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Seattle (who I’ve already predicted won’t be nearly as good this season) are the only four teams on their 2008 schedule who made the postseason in 2007. The rest of the Pat’s slate includes Kansas City, San Francisco, St Louis, Denver, Oakland, and Arizona. While there should be some expected improvement from some of these teams, you can’t say there’ll be THAT much improvement that New England won’t be favored in just about every game they’ll play.

So with that, plus the immense talent they return, New England should be a slam dunk to win the AFC East Division for a seventh year in a row.

Just when you thought the rich couldn’t get any richer, guess who has the second easiest schedule in the league for 2008? Why, none other than the Patriots AFC Championship game opponent, the San Diego Super Chargers. Like the Pats, the Charge benefit from playing in a division whose other three teams did not finish above .500. The Powder Blues also have only four teams on their slate who were a playoff team in 2007: the Pats of course, along with Indy, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay (another team who I’m predicting won’t be making a return trip to the post season). The rest of the schedule is filled with the other three teams from the NFC South (New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina) and the AFC East (Buffalo, Miami, and the J-E-T-S Brett! Brett! Brett!). Bingo bango bongo you have another cakewalk. With virtually the same team coming back intact, including the game’s best offensive (RB LaDanian Tomlinson) and defensive (LB Shawn Merriman) players, the Super Chargers look like a mortal lock to repeat as AFC West champs in 2008.

Which leads us to the AFC North and South, or as the Strength of Schedule people like to call them, the Two Toughest Divisions in Football. Yes, the eight teams in those two divisions will be playing eight of the nine hardest schedules in 2008. Pittsburgh, Indy, and Jacksonville are the top three, your Minnesota Vikings are fourth (uh oh) and then the rest of the teams from those divisions fill out the next five spots. So while Pittsburgh and Indianapolis both look to have the toughest tasks of not only repeating as division winners but just making the playoffs again, it’s going be tough for ANYBODY in those two divisions!

But according to the chart, either Pittsburgh or Indy will not only not win their division, but possibly not make the playoffs?!?! Crazy but true. So which is more likely to falter this year? Good freaking question…

Pittsburgh, at least on paper, looks pretty freaking awesome! If you take a look at their team, there just aren’t any holes. Ben Roethlisberger became a franchise QB last season with the second best QB rating (104.1), 3154 yds passing and 32 TD’s to just 11 INTs. He has plenty of talent to throw to, and two good backs in Willie Parker and Illinois rookie Rashard Mendenhall alternating behind him. Yes, they did lose Alan Faneca to the Jets on the O-line, but can you remember the last time the Steelers didn’t have a great offensive line? Me neither. They’ll be fine. On the other side of the ball, they return the best defense in the league. This all should be a recipe for another division title, right?

Not so fast! Indy has won five straight conference titles, but will be in tough to make it six. It’s not that Indy shouldn’t be good again, it’s that the AFC South has become the league’s toughest division. We’ll get to Jacksonville in a second, I already told you what Tennessee will look like, and let’s not forget the Houston Texans, who quietly put together an 8-8 season last year and were only outscored by five points. I have trouble seeing how anybody in this group will have a top two record in the conference when you have to play everybody here twice. Good luck with that.

The Colts do still have Peyton Manning, and because of him some apparent red flags may not make much of a difference. Marvin Harrison barely played last year because of a knee injury, and so far in off-season workouts, he hasn’t exactly made a strong comeback. While last year’s first rounder Anthony Gonzalez played well and could step in for Harrison, there’s not much depth or experience after that. The O-line also looks just ok, but Manning is so good at avoiding sacks, it seems you could line up some lawn furniture to block for him and he could still find open receivers.

Looking at the defensive depth chart, other than Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders, you won’t find many names you recognize. Yet largely the same group, and mostly without Freeney, was one of the NFL’s best defenses last year. So there’s nothing to suggest it shouldn’t be any different this season.

Ok so both the Steelers and Colts look great on paper. What about the other teams in their divisions? In the AFC North, Cleveland was a Super Secret Surprise team from last year, Cincinnati finished around .500, and Baltimore, despite yet another awesome year from their defense, finished with just 5 wins. Personally, the Ravens are a prime candidate to have a huge bounce back year, the Browns are definitely for real and the Bungles could be dangerous. Are any of these three good enough to knock off Pittsburgh? Using logic, reason, and any statistical evidence I can find, I can’t say in good conscience that any of them are.

So I’m taking Pittsburgh to repeat in the North, Jacksonville to knock off Indy in the South, but for the Colts to still get in as a wild card. Who will be the sixth and final team to get in?

That and more in the next post on the Super Secret Sleeper(s) for 2008.