Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Jeff: Johan

A little late on the draw here, as you've probably heard by now the less than complimentary things Johan Santana had to say about his current employer, the Minnesota Twins. Of course there's still over a year until the 2008 season draws to a close and Santana can officially become a free agent, the Twins response and actions can change much of the perception that Johan has. Now I'm admittedly not a Twins fan, although I loved watching them play when I lived in MN and couldn't help but cheer for them as long as it didn't effect the Mariners (which, until this year, was never really a problem). Because I'm not a Twins fan, nor a native Minnesotan, I'm wondering if I'm possibly missing something surrounding the Twins reluctance to throw obscene amounts of money at the game's best player.

I'm not about to argue that $20+ million a year isn't a lot of money. It's a ludicrous amount, especially to play a kids game, but like it or not, after last season's free agent spending spree where an average starter like Barry Zito (who was living off of his Cy Young reputation a few years back) got $125 million over 7 years, $20 million annually is probably the floor for Santana's value, not the ceiling. The Twins have taken a hard line on keeping payroll as low as possible ($74 million to start the year but closer to $70 million currently with their latest trade of Ramon Ortiz), with the whining- I mean reasoning- from baseball's 2nd richest owner Carl Pohlad always being that he had a horrible stadium deal. Well with a brand new stadium coming in 2009 (for which he paid barely a 5th yet will get 100% of the profits), you would think those excuses should be gone right? I'm not asking for a Yankee-esque $200 million payroll, or even $100 million (only 8 teams- I'm including the Cubbies at $99.6 million- have at least payrolls in the 9 figure range, and of that group only the Mariners aren't one of the country's largest markets), but I think it's reasonable for a team in a mid market with a huge local following and a brand new stadium to have a payroll in the $85-$90 million range.

Whether it's because of Pohlad's titanium lock on payroll or Ryan's titanium lock on his prospects (news flash he has 9- NINE!!!- starting pitchers 25 or under at the major league level or AAA! NINE! He knows a rotation only has 5 spots right? Right? NINE!)the team refuses to raise the budget, and although I certainly don't have access to the Twins front office, it seems like they're shocked that Santana isn't going to give them a Brad Radke-like hometown discount. Gentlemen, the time to talk hometown discount was this time last summer, before the free agency lunacy began. Now a "bargain" would be that $20 million a year mark.

I know Torii, Mauer, Morneausy, Nathan and Cuddy are coming due for free agency themselves, but Santana should be priority #1 because he could quite possibly be THE BEST FREE AGENT EVER. Ever. Not only that, he could be the lowest risk free agent ever. He's 28 years old, will be 29 when he hits the market, and has been the best player in the league since 2003. You can have A-Rod, Big Papi, Pujols, Vlad the Impaler, Reyes, Cabrerra or anybody else you want to name. Johan has been consistently as good as any, and because he's the rarest of rare breeds, a left-handed power pitcher, in a pitching-starved market, he's easily the most valuable player in baseball. What's more, there's nothing that shows that he shouldn't continue to be dominant well into his mid 30's.

Simply put from an outsider's perspective, if the Twins are serious about being contenders and rewarding their fans for buying them a new stadium out of their own pockets, there is no reasonable argument why they wouldn't lock up the game's best player as soon as possible. Anyone care to disagree?

1 comment:

colkri said...

Johan would be my top pick for a team in the post season, because having 2 pitchers is of utmost importance in the post-season, but I'd take A-Rod (or whomever is the best non-pitcher) to build a team, because he'll help you every day, helping you get to the post-season.