The 1st Annual Over/Under NFL Wins Confidence Challenge

An excellent blog about sports betting and other sports stuff called Vegas Watch is having an "NFL Totals" contest to see who can most accurately pick the over/unders on 2008 NFL win totals that Vegas puts out. I thought it'd be fun to have a Metric Musings challenge, where everybody submits the 10 over/unders you're MOST confident in. In fact, we can even do confidence points: Give 10 to the pick you're most confident about, and if you're right at the end of the year, you get 10 points, 9 for your next pick etc. etc. all the way down to 1. The winner at the end of the year gets a beer, or your drink of choice, on me (for Joel, you could get a 12 pack of Cherry cokes or something). so submit your 10 picks in the comments section, and at season's end we'll see who did the best.

Before I get to that, though, I'll give my last 3 playoff teams for the NFC, since I forgot to do it earlier: the Saints win the NFC South, the Cardinals the NFC West, and the Eagles take the final wild card spot.

And yes, I realize that I excluded the Vikings from the playoffs. That was not an accident. Every year there's a trendy team who the media seem to think is going to jump from pretender to contender. Last year it was the Niners. The year before it was Arizona. This year, unfortunately, it's the Vikings, and as much as I'd love to watch my beloved Purple in the playoffs, there's still too many questions about Tavaris Jackson, the wide receivers, and the pass defense to give the Vikes a playoff spot.

Ok then, on with the over/unders. Here's the whole list of all 32 teams, with my choices beside it. I'll give my 10 best at the end. Again, Vegas puts out a projected win total for each NFL team. Your job is to pick whether they'll finish with more or less wins. Feel free to play along at home.

NFC
North
Chicago, 8 wins- UNDER!!!!
Detroit, 6- over
Green Bay, 8.5- over (barely)
Minnesota, 8.5- under (barely)

South
Atlanta 4.5- over (barely)
Carolina, 7.5- under
New Orleans, 8.5- OVER!!!
Tampa Bay, 8- under

East
Dallas, 10.5- over
New York Football Giants, 9- under
Philadelphia, 8.5- over
Washington, 7.5- over

West
Arizona, 7.5- over
St Louis, 6.5- under
San Francisco, 6.5- under
Seattle, 8.5- under

IF GAMBLING WERE LEGAL...
best under bet- Bears at 8. That's the easiest money on the board right there.
best over bet- Saints at 8.5. To me they're clearly the best team in that division.
toughest pick- Buccaneers at 8. While I don't think the Bucs repeat as division champs I still think they'll be decent. 9 wins seems like too much, and 7 not enough so of course Vegas puts the number right at 8.

AFC
North
Baltimore, 6- OVER!!!!
Cincinnati, 7.5- under
Cleveland, 8- under
Pittsburgh, 9- over

South
Houston, 7.5- over
Indianapolis, 11- under
Jacksonville, 10- under
Tennessee, 8- under

East
Buffalo, 8- under
Miami, 5.5- over
New England, 12.5- over
New York Jets, 8- under

West
Denver, 7.5- over
Kansas City, 6- under
Oakland, 6.5- over
San Diego- 10.5- under

IF GAMBLING WERE LEGAL...
best under bet- Powder Blues at 10.5. I'm surprised this hasn't changed with Merriman's knee injury announcement. Or like me (at first), has everyone forgotten Norv Turner is still the coach there?
best over bet- Ravens at 6. Just edges out the Steelers line. Of course you know I'm rather bullish on the Ravens.
toughest pick- Toronto Bills at 8. Just like Tampa Bay Tampa Bay, 8 seems like the perfect number for the Buffalo/Torontos. I think they're a playoff contender but if I'm predicting them to miss the playoffs, 9 wins seems like one too many.

There you have it. Leave your 10 best in the comments section and we'll see what happens.